Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has fallen a bit during the initial week but later managed to overcome against greenback afterwards. A trough-to-peak rise of 38% is impressive for most stocks – and a rarity in currency markets, yet that is what happened to AUD/USD in 2021. Australia’s success against COVID-19, Chinese demand and central bank action are behind the rise from the ashes. 

US Final GDP on 22^nd Dec created bearish trend for the pair whereas US Core PCE Price Index monthly report and US New Home Sales bullish moment on 23rd Dec created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at Dec 28, US S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 y/y at Dec 29, US Pending Home Sales monthly report, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Dec 30, and US Initial Jobless Claims at Dec 31.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.43% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7607 and low at 0.7462 showed a movement of 145 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7507 may open a clean path towards 0.7412 and may take a way down to 0.7363. Should 0.7652 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7702 and 0.7796 respectively. In H4 chart bearish gartley pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted spinning top formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.