Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has shown itself to be rather resilient and strong during the course of the week, after initially pulling back. It seems that US dollar is probably in serious trouble longer term. There seems less stimulus in the market. As long as that is going to be the case in the United States, that should continue to work against the greenback.

In the past week, US S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 y/y & S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 n.s.a. on 29^th Dec and US Initial Jobless Claims on 31^st Dec created a bearish trend for the pair whereas US Goods Trade Balance & MNI Chicago Business Barometer on 30^th Dec and US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change on 31^st Dec created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are OPEC Meeting at Jan 04, Australia Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Jan 05, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at Jan 06, Australia Building Approvals monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Jan 07, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Jan 08.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.78% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7742 and low at 0.7557 showed a movement of 185 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7772 may open a clean path towards 0.7850 and may take a way up to 0.7957. Should 0.7587 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may sink downwards 0.7480 and 0.7402 respectively. In H4 chart symmetrical triangle breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bullish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.