Fundamental view:

The AUD/USD pair was in uptrend in the beginning of the week touching a fresh three-year high, but it was all downtrend from there. Wall Street plummeted as US Treasury yields soared to one-year highs, by dragging commodity-linked currencies lower. The pair made a rally as the American dollar maintained its sour tone while investors remained mostly optimistic about future economic developments. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields stormed higher but accelerated their advances after US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell testified on monetary policy before Congress.

US S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 n.s.a. m/m & US S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 s.a. on 23^rd Feb and US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change & US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change on 24^th Feb favored uptrend for the pair whereas US Chicago Fed National Activity Index & US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on 22^nd Feb and Australia Construction Work Done on 24^th Feb created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Mar 01, RBA Interest Rate Decision at Mar 02, Australia GDP quarterly report, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Mar 03, Fed Chair Powell Speech at Mar 04, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Mar 05.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.62% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.8007 and low at 0.7692 showed a movement of 315 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7591 may open a clean path towards 0.7484 and may take a way down to 0.7276. Should 0.7906 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.8114 and 0.8221 respectively. In H4 chart expanding triangle breakout favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted three inside down pattern formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.