Fundamental view:

The AUD/USD pair advanced against the greenback for a fifth consecutive week. The pair reached the high of 0.7555 on Thursday, following the release of US growth-related figures. The US central bank is about to have a monetary policy meeting next week and make an announcement of the outcome on Wednesday, November 3. Back in September, chief Jerome Powell anticipated that they could begin a gradual tapering process at their next summit, with the Minutes of the meeting indicating the central bank would probably start by cutting $10 billion a month in Treasuries and $5 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities. On the other hand , Australian inflation unexpectedly soared in the third quarter of the year.

Australia Import Price Index quarterly report on 27th October and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations on 29th October favored bearish outlook for the pair whereas US Goods Trade Balance on 27th October and US Pending Home Sales monthly report on 28th October framed bullish outlook for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Nov 01, RBA Interest Rate Decision at Nov 02, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Nov 03, US Nonfarm Productivity quarterly report at Nov 04, RBA Monetary Policy Statement and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Nov 05.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.13% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7555 and low at 0.7463 showed a movement of 92 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A firm breakout below 0.7469 may fall to 0.7420 and may take a way down to 0.7377. Should 0.7561 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7604 and 0.7653 respectively. In H4 chart bearish shark pattern favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.