Fundamental view:

Australian dollar has gone back and forth against the US dollar during course of the trading week. Even the broad US dollar weakness could not help the Aussie. The main cause for that is still linked to the pandemic. Australia passed 2020 without much economic pain, as the island country quickly closed its borders. But this strategy did not work and it opened borders with newzealand and then virus reentered and led to multiple regional lockdowns which weighed on the Australian economy whereas The US Federal Reserve met on Wednesday, and its announcement was disappointing. Amidst the prevailing dollar weakness, Aussie closed the week with a slight bullish candle.

US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index report on 26th July and Australia Export Price Index quarterly report on 29th July created uptrend whereas US S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 yearly report on 27th July & Australia CPI on 28th July created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Aug 02, RBA Interest Rate Decision at Aug 03, Retail Sales monthly report, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Aug 04, RBA Governor Lowe Speech, US Initial Jobless Claims at Aug 05 and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Aug 06.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.15% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7413 and low at 0.7316 showed a movement of 97 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7401 may open a clean path towards 0.7455 and may take a way up to 0.7498. Should 0.7304 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may sink downwards 0.7261 and 0.7207 respectively. In H4 chart butterfly pattern favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted hammer formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.