Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the course of the week but gave back the gains to close above 0.7600 level. The US Federal Reserve had a monetary policy meeting this week, and some analyst referred it as a dovish meeting, it was just like the usual wait-and-see.  Fed Chair Powell balanced a cautious tone over the risk of the pandemic with optimism about economic progress. He mentioned a couple times of a near-future when the country will be beyond the curve and has left coronavirus behind, but reminded market players that the economy still needs to recover 8.4 million jobs and that the Fed will not act until progress toward its goals on employment and inflation are materialized. The greenback has some reasons to look stronger but it is on hold ahead of clear picture and additional confirmations from macroeconomic figures.

US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change on 28^th April and Australia Export Price Index quarterly report on 29^th April favored bullish trend whereas US CB Consumer Confidence Index on 27^th April and US Initial Jobless Claims on 29th April  favored bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Speech at May 03, RBA Interest Rate Decision, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at May 05, US Initial Jobless Claims at May 06, RBA Monetary Policy Statement, US Nonfarm Payrolls at May 07.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.03% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7818 and low at 0.7696 showed a movement of 122 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7665 may open a clean path towards 0.7620 and may take a way down to 0.7543. Should 0.7787 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7864 and 0.7909 respectively. In H4 chart double top pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted three black crows formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.