Fundamental view:

In the previous week, Aussie traded high against the greenback. The US Federal Reserve members spent quite a lot of time in clarifying that they would not change the current monetary policy regardless of higher inflation. US Treasury yields fell with such comments, accelerating their slump on Friday, as inflation and rate hikes have fallen off investors’ radar. In the Meantime, The Reserve Bank of Australia had a monetary policy meeting, leaving its current policy unchanged as widely anticipated.  Policymakers repeated that rates would remain at current levels at least until 2024, announcing a review of its current stance for next July.

Australia Trade Balance and US Factory Orders monthly report on 4^th May favored downtrend for the pair whereas Australia Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI & RBA Index of Commodity Prices yearly report on 3^rd May and Australia Commonwealth Bank Services on 5^th May favored uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Australia Retail Sales monthly report, NAB Business Confidence at May 10, US JOLTS Job Openings at May 11, US Core CPI monthly report, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at May 12, US Initial Jobless Claims at May 13, US Retail Sales monthly report and Fed Industrial Production yearly report at May 14.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.58% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7863 and low at 0.7675 showed a movement of 188 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7912 may open a clean path towards 0.7982 and may take a way up to 0.8100. Should 0.7724 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may sink downwards 0.7606 and 0.7536 respectively. In H4 chart double bottom breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bullish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.