Fundamental view:

The Aussie finished a second consecutive week pretty much unchanged near the 0.7670 level. The commodity-linked currency has remained away from investor’s radar this week, although it’s quite notable that with the broad greenback’s weakness and record levels in Wall Street, the pair was unable to advance. The American currency traded with a weak tone after unfavorable employment figures.

In the last week, The Reserve Bank Australia had a monetary policy meeting as per anticipation, the central bank held the cash rate and the 3-year yield target at 0.10%. The accompanying statement repeated that policymakers don’t expect to change interest rates at least until 2024 while noting that “the economy is operating with considerable spare capacity and unemployment is still too high.”

US ISM-NY Business Conditions Index & US Factory Orders monthly report on 5^th April and US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change on 7^th April created downtrend whereas US Initial Jobless Claims on 8th April, US Wholesale Inventories monthly report on 9th April created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are NAB Business Confidence, US CPI monthly report at April 13, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 14, Australia Employment Change, US Retail Sales monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at April 15 and US Building Permits at April 16.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.42% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7677 and low at 0.7588 showed a movement of 89 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7578 may open a clean path towards 0.7539 and may take a way down to 0.7489. Should 0.7667 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7717 and 0.7756 respectively. In H4 chart head and shoulders pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.