Fundamental view:

The Aussie is down for a second consecutive week, trading near a fresh 2021 low. The US dollar appreciated against the aussie on the back of risk-aversion, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Whereas US government bond yields soared, sending yields to their lowest levels since last February. On the other hand, Australia has extended lockdowns amid increasing covid cases. In Sydney, restrictive measures were extended to July 16 after reporting 44 new cases on Friday. The slow vaccination rate in the country plays a negative role, as only 9% of the population has been immunized.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid on 6th July and US Consumer Credit monthly report on 8th July created downtrend whereas Australia Retail Sales monthly report and Australia ANZ Job Advertisements monthly report on 5th July and US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change on 8th July created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US WASDE Report at July 12, NAB Business Confidence, US Federal Budget Balance at July 13, US Fed Chair Powell Testimony at July 14, Australia Employment Change, US Initial Jobless Claims at July 15 and US Retail sales monthly report at July 16.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.04% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7598 and low at 0.7409 showed a movement of 189 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7399 may open a clean path towards 0.7310 and may take a way down to 0.7210. Should 0.7588 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7688 and 0.7777 respectively. In H4 chart rounding top pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted three inside down pattern formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.