Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar fell rather hard against dollar during the course of the trading week. The greenback was benefited from a poor market’s mood, as the coronavirus Delta variant kept storming the Northern Hemisphere, arising doubts about global economic progress. The central bank has decided to maintain its tapering plans by reducing its bond-buying purchases from A$5 billion to A$4 billion per week, although it extended them to February 2022. Australia is about to publish inflation and employment-related data next week.

US Core PPI monthly report on 10th Sep and US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change on 9th Sep created uptrend whereas Australia ANZ Job Advertisements monthly report on 6th Sep and US CB Employment Trends Index on 7th Sep created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Federal Budget Balance at Sep 13, RBA Governor Lowe Speech at Sep 14, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Sep 15, US Retail Sales monthly report, Australia Employment Change, US Initial Jobless Claims at Sep 16 and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Sep 17.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.13% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7468 and low at 0.7345 showed a movement of 123 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 50 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7307 may open a clean path towards 0.7264 and may take a way down to 0.7184. Should 0.7430 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7510 and 0.7553 respectively. In H4 chart double top pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.