Fundamental view:

Aussie showed a confusing trend against greenback in the previous week. The greenback strengthened on the back of soaring government bond yields. Whereas, The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that “the bank remains committed to the three-year yield target,” but he did not leave alone with words, he turned to deeds. The RBA stopped the Commonwealth treasury and lended out three-year government bonds. it massively increased the cost of borrowing these bonds, making it prohibitively expensive to short-sell them. US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell has repeated multiple times those changes to the monetary policy do not depend on yields but mostly on a recovery in the employment sector. These different stances give an advantage to the aussie.

US Wholesale Sales on 8th March and US Michigan Consumer Expectations on 12th March favored bearish trend whereas Australia NAB Business Confidence on 9^th March and US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 10^th March favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 16, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 17, Australia Employment Change, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 18 and Australia Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 19.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.47% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7801 and low at 0.7621 showed a movement of 180 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 0.7653 may open a clean path towards 0.7547 and may take a way down to 0.7473. Should 0.7832 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7906 and 0.8012 respectively. In H4 chart bearish bat pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.