Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the course of last week ending with a bearish candle. The basic logic for the AUD/USD is that of the commodity complex in anticipation of a global recovery as the pandemic relents. That scenario still holds as the final arbiter for 2021 despite the setbacks in pandemic control of varying degrees of seriousness in the US, Europe and China.

Austalia Retail Sales on 11^th January and US NFIB Small Business Optimism on 12^th January created uptrend for the pair whereas US CPI monthly report on 13^th January and US Export Price Index yearly report on 14^th January created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions at Jan 19, Australia Employment Change, US Building Permits, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US Initial Jobless Claims at Jan 21, Australia Retail Sales monthly report and US Markit Manufacturing PMI at Jan 22.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.18% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7806 and low at 0.7666 showed a movement of 139 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout above 0.7782 may open a clean path towards 0.7863 and may take a way up to 0.7921. Should 0.7642 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may sink downwards 0.7585 and 0.7503 respectively. In H4 chart bullish shark pattern favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted spinning top formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.