Fundamental view:

The Aussie has fell against greenback for a third week in a line. Things in Australia have continued to worsen on the COVID-19 front, affecting economic developments which weighed on AUD.  The country has extended regional lockdowns imposed in June, as the number of coronavirus cases remains on the rise.  Cities which has restrictions are Sydney, Victoria, South Wells and Queensland On the other hand, US dollar has seen significant buying pressure against multiple currencies this week.

US Real Earnings monthly report on 13th July and US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change on 14th July created an uptrend whereas US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change on 14th July & Australia Employment Change on 15th July created a downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Meeting Minutes, US Building Permits at July 20, Australia Retail Sales monthly report, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at July 21, RBA Governor Lowe Speech, US Initial Jobless Claims, US CB Leading Economic Index monthly report at July 22 and US Markit Manufacturing PMI at July 23.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.26% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7502 and low at 0.7391 showed a movement of 111 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7357 may open a clean path towards 0.7318 and may take a way down to 0.7246. Should 0.7468 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7540 and 0.7579 respectively. In H4 chart head and shoulders pattern breakout favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.