Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has fallen rather hard during the course of the trading week. Chief Jerome Powell & Co. upwardly reviewed their forecasts on growth and inflation for this year and the next, bringing forward chances of rising rates, as the dot-plot now shows two possible hikes for 2023. Till now, the Fed has noted that they will react to actual data and not forecasts, but somehow, US policymakers contradicted themself with their latest decision, encouraged by progress in the immunization campaign. Chief Powell said that they are thinking on thinking of tapering but clarified that they would notify it in advance.

US Building Permits on 16th June and Australia Unemployment Rate on 17th June created uptrend for the pair whereas US Philadelphia Fed Employment & US Continuing Jobless Claims on 17th June and US Philadelphia Fed Employment & US Continuing Jobless Claims on 17th June created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Australia Retail Sales monthly report at Jun 21, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Jun 22, RBA Assistant Governor Ellis Speech, US Markit Manufacturing PMI at Jun 23, US GDP quarterly report, US Core Durable Goods Orders, US Initial Jobless Claims at Jun 24 and US Core PCE Price Index at Jun 25.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.64% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7725 and low at 0.7478 showed a movement of 247 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7396 may open a clean path towards 0.7313 and may take a way down to 0.7149. Should 0.7643 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7807 and 0.7890 respectively. In H4 chart bearish gartley pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.