Fundamental view:

Australian dollar managed to show a uptrend against the American dollar during the trading course of the week recovering from its previous week loss. The commodity linked currency found support this week with the sentiment seesawing alongside headlines coming from Europe. This week came to end without any progress in the peace talks but on the contrary, with increased fears of a possible nuclear attack and concerns about the effect of the war on global growth and inflation. Additionally upbeat employment data favored the AUD. The country managed to add 121.9K full-time jobs, and while the number of part-time positions was down by 44.5K, the final total was 77.4K – more than doubling the 37K expected. Meanwhile the Unemployment Rate contracted to 4%, while the Participation Rate rose to 66.4%.

Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a “patient” stance, as the central bank has released the Minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, which brought little new to speculative interest. The Fed has increased fund rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% for the first time since 2018 and meet the market expectation.

In this week, US PPI monthly report on 15^th March and Fed Interest Rate Decision on 16^th March underpinned the bearish move whereas Australia HPI quarterly report on 15^th March, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 16^th March and Australia Employment Change on 17^th March underpinned the bullish move of the quote.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Speech at Mar 21, RBA Governor Lowe Speech at Mar 22, Australia Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Mar 23, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 24, Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Fed Governor Waller Speech at Mar 25.  

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.31% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7417 and low at 0.7165 showed a movement of 252 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7498 may open a clean path towards 0.7584 and may take a way up to 0.7750. Should 0.7246 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may sink downwards 0.7080 and 0.6994 respectively. In H4 chart simple-w pattern breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bullish harami formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.