Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth over the last couple of weeks, and at this point in time it is likely that the market will continue to see a lot of back and forth in this general vicinity due to the fact that it has rallied. Australia Employment Change, Unemployment Rate on 17^th September , US Unemployment Claims, Building Permits on 17^th September created uptrend for the pair whereas US Empire State Manufacturing on 15^th September and US Business Inventories on 16^th September created downtrend for the pair.

The Fed’s stance after meeting earlier this month supported dollar and we expect a bearish trend for the pair in the upcoming week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Deputy Governor Debelle Speech, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Sep 22, Australia Retail Sales monthly report, US Markit Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Sep 23, and US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at Sep 25.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.28% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7345 and low at 0.7254 showed a movement of 91 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7246 may open a clean path towards 0.7204 and may take a way down to 0.7155. Should 0.7337 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7387 and 0.7428 respectively. In H4 chart, if breakout of the expanding triangle to the downside then bearish expectation is favored. Also to be noted doji formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.