Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has found itself somewhat weak against its American rival during the course of the week.  Upbeat Australian data could not beat higher government bond yields, which was the centre of attraction news of the previous week. The US Federal Reserve announced its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, and, as widely anticipated, policymakers left rates and quantitative easing on hold. The dot plot shows no rate hikes throughout 2023. Yields resumed their advances on previous week, with long-term US Treasury yields reaching levels that were last seen in January 2020.The Reserve Bank of Australia published the Minutes of its latest meeting. The document showed that there would be no rate increases for a considerable time.

US TIC Net Foreign Purchases of Domestic Treasury Bonds & Notes on 15^th March and US Retail Sales on 16^th March helped in upward movement of the pair whereas US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on 18^th March and Australia Retail Sales monthly report on 19^th March helped in downtrend movement of the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Speech at Mar 22, Australia Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Mar 23, Australia CB Leading Index monthly report monthly report, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at Mar 24, US GDP quarterly report at Mar 25, PCE Price Index at Mar 26.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.62% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7849 and low at 0.7699 showed a movement of 150 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside.  A solid breakout below 0.7676 may open a clean path towards 0.7613 and may take a way down to 0.7526. Should 0.7826 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7913 and 0.7976 respectively. In H4 chart bearish butterfly pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.