Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit during the course of the week The macroeconomic data coming from major economies indicated sustained growth, regardless if it missed or surpassed the market’s expectations. Central bankers from around the developed world are showing different degrees of optimism regarding the post-pandemic comeback, which is underway.

Australia Retail Sales monthly report on 21st June and Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI on 23rd June favored bearish trend whereas US Existing Home Sales on 22nd June and US PCE Price Index yearly report on 25th June favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Jun 29, RBA Private Sector Credit monthly report, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at Jun 30, Australia Trade Balance, US Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at July 01 and US Nonfarm Payrolls at July 02.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.41% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7616 and low at 0.7477 showed a movement of 139 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7507 may open a clean path towards 0.7423 and may take a way down to 0.7368. Should 0.7646 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7701 and 0.7785 respectively. In H4 chart bearish bat pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.