BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (11th April 2022 – 15th April 2022)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin had a bad week against the US dollar. The hawkish stance by the Fed Policymakers favored the US dollar. The Fed unveiled the monetary policy this week. FOMC Minutes were far more aggressive than anticipated. US policymakers “generally agreed” on reducing the balance sheet by $95 billion a month, which will likely begin in May.  A maximum of $60 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities would be allowed to roll off per month. At the same time, the document hinted at upcoming 50 bps rate hikes, instead of the average 25 bps as hiked in March.

Panelists at a discussion on the current macro backdrop at Bitcoin 2022 have argued that macroeconomic landscape for bitcoin (BTC) could become more difficult to navigate as the US Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. However, bitcoin is the only way to transition to a new monetary standard Dr. Jeff Ross, founder and CEO of Vailshire Capital Management, urged the audience to get “mentally ready for what could happen” to the bitcoin price in the short-term. Bitcoin is still strongly correlated to the stock market, he said, warning that planned rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could translate into lower stock prices going forward. However, Ross still said that bitcoin remains a viable way to store value and save money over the long-term, given how he expects fiat money to decline in value.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Governor Bowman Speech at Apr 11, Federal Budget Balance at Apr 12, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Apr 13, Retail Sales monthly report, Initial Jobless Claims, Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Apr 14 and Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Apr 15 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.66% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 47388.6 and low at 42117.4 showed a movement of 5271 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bearish trend. The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. Should 40525.4 proves to be unreliable support then the pair may fall further to 38685.8 and 35254.2 respectively whereas a solid breakout above 45796.6 will open a clear path upward to 49228.2 and then will further raise up to 51067.8. In H4 chart head and shoulders pattern breakout favors prospects of a bearish trend. Shooting star pattern constructs a bearish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.