BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (2nd May 2022 – 6th May 2022)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin dropped against the greenback during the trading course of the week. The fall of the Bitcoin indicates a lower appetite for risk among traders,  investors reduce their exposure to speculative assets such as cryptos during times of uncertainty. .As the Shanghai’s coronavirus lockdown dragged into the fourth week, China ordered mass coronavirus testing in Beijing, escalating fears over a lockdown in the capital city of the world’s second-biggest economy which weighed on the consumer sentiment. The escalating geopolitical risk also weighs on the market sentiment favoring the US dollar. Amidst that the aggressive rate hike expectation from Fed also weighs on the Bitcoin.

Elsewhere, a Twitter thread by crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user “Wolves of Crypto,” indicates that “the most probable bear market bottom for Bitcoin will take place in November/December 2022.”

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ISM Manufacturing PMI at May 02, JOLTS Job Openings at May 03, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at May 04 and Nonfarm Payrolls at May 06 US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 5.10% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 40781.1 and low at 37718.4 showed a movement of 3063 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bearish trend. The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. Should 37359.8 proves to be unreliable support then the pair may fall further to 36007.7 and 34297.1 respectively whereas a solid breakout above 40422.5 will open a clear path upward to 42133.1 and then will further raise up to 43485.2. In H4 chart rounding top pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Three inside down pattern constructs a bearish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Sell: 38681.9 target at 35665.7 and stop loss at 40427.5

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 40427.5 target at 43484.2 and stop loss at 38681.9

XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (2nd May 2022 – 6th May 2022)

Fundamental view:

Gold prices fell this week amid a worsening demand outlook. The China’s lockdown and the geopolitical tension favored the greenback, weighing on the gold. As the Shanghai’s coronavirus lockdown dragged into the fourth week, China ordered mass coronavirus testing in Beijing, escalating fears over a lockdown in the capital city of the world’s second-biggest economy weighed on the yellow metal. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that they rejected Ukraine’s proposal to hold peace talks in Ukraine and warned that they must not underestimate the risks of a nuclear conflict, boosting the dollar even further. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that they rejected Ukraine’s proposal to hold peace talks in Ukraine and warned that they must not underestimate the risks of a nuclear conflict.

Talking about the central bank, The US Federal Reserve has already lifted the main benchmark to a 0.25%-0.50% range and would likely take it to around 2.75% by year-end. Meanwhile CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 96.5% probability of a 50 bps rate hike in May and a 85% chance of a 50 bps June lift-off.             

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ISM Manufacturing PMI at May 02, JOLTS Job Openings at May 03, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at May 04 and Nonfarm Payrolls at May 06 US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

 Last week’s high was 3.21% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1934.1 and low at 1871.5 showed a movement of 626 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bearish trend. The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. Should 1867.0 proves to be unreliable support then the pair may fall further to 1838.0 and 1804.4 respectively whereas a solid breakout above 1929.6 will open a clear path upward to 1963.2 and then will further raise up to 1992.2. In H4 chart bearish shark pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 1900.2 target at 1850.6 and stop loss at 1934.6

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1934.6 target at 1981.4 and stop loss at 1900.2

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (2nd May 2022 – 6th May 2022)

Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar fell against the American dollar during the trading course of the week. US dollar outperformed other currencies with aggressive rate hike expectation from it, with the CME’s FedWatch tool showing a 96.5% probability of a 50 bps rate hike in May and a 85% chance of a 50 bps June lift-off. On the other hand, Money market futures odds of a 0.25 bps increase by the RBA sit at an 85% chance, though some analysts were expecting a 40-bps rate hike.

Broad-based US dollar strength remains a key theme this week as Investors move towards the safe haven USD for refugee in times of market uncertainty caused by supply chain contrains due to China’s lockdown and the Ukraine crisis.  China’s covid lockdowns extended into Beijing while the Shanghai-reopening hopes faltered on a fresh uptick in infections and Europe battled an energy crisis, in the face of the Russia-Ukraine war.

In this week, US CB Consumer Confidence Index on 26th April and Australia CPI quarterly report on 27th April favored the bullish trend whereas US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report on 26th April and RBA Private Sector Credit monthly report on 29th April favored the bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI at May 02, RBA Interest Rate Decision at May 03, Australia Retail Sales monthly report, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at May 04, RBA Monetary Policy Statement and Nonfarm Payrolls at May 06.  

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 2.78% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7250 and low at 0.7054 showed a movement of 196 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. Should 0.6992 proves to be unreliable support then the pair may fall further to 0.6925 and 0.6796 respectively whereas a solid breakout above 0.7188 will open a clear path upward to 0.7317 and then will further raise up to 0.7384. In H4 chart, if breakout of the channel pattern is to the downside then bearish expectation is favored. Also to be noted shooting star formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7055 target at 0.6867 and stop loss at 0.7192

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7192 target at 0.7383 and stop loss at 0.7055

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (2nd May 2022 – 6th May 2022)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar climbed higher against its yen counterpart during the trading course of the week. The monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the BOJ is the major catalyst behind the USD/JPY bulls. The US dollar was the most sought currencies due to the aggressive rate hike expectation from the fed. The US Federal Reserve has already lifted the main benchmark to a 0.25%-0.50% range and would likely take it to around 2.75% by year-end.  On the other hand, the BOJ pledged to defend its zero rate policy with unlimited government bond purchases, falling further out of step with its central bank colleagues around the world. 

Further, the worries of supply chain constraints due to the china’s lockdown and the geopolitical tension weighed on the consumer sentiment. In times of uncertainty and market unrest, investors took refuge in the ultimate safe-haven, the dollar.

In this week, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 27th April and Japan Industrial Production monthly report on 28th April underpinned bearish trend whereas Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report on 26th April and BoJ Interest Rate Decision on 28th April underpinned bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at May 02, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at May 04, Tokyo CPI yearly report and Nonfarm Payrolls at May 06.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.43% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 131.25 and low at 126.95 showed a movement of 430 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 131.66 may open a clean path towards 133.60 and may take a way up to 135.96. Should 127.36 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 125.00 and 123.06 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of ascending scallops pattern indicates continuation of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a hammer formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 129.71 target at 133.59 and stop loss at 127.31

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 127.31 target at 123.82 and stop loss at 129.71