GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (20th September 2021 – 24th September 2021)

Fundamental view:

Pound has initially rallied against the greenback but later fell closing with a weekly bear candle. In US inflation has eased.  Easing inflation allows Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to insist that price rises are transitory and potentially delay the bank’s taper decision. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a shuffling in his government, but left Rishi Sunak as Chancellor of the Exchequer, calming markets. The Prime Minister also decided to expand vaccine coverage ahead of the colder season as UK cases remain elevated, but hospitals are not suffering significant pressure. Amidst all the catalysts pound seems to be under pressure.

Britain Claimant Count Change on 14th Sep and Britain PPI Input monthly report on 15th Sep created uptrend whereas US Cleveland Fed Median CPI monthly report on 14th Sep and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment on 17th Sep created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, US Building Permits at Sep 21, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Sep 22, BoE Interest Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims at Sep 23 and Fed Chair Powell Speech at Sep 24.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.17% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3912 and low at 1.3726 showed a movement of 186 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.3664 may open a clean path towards 1.3602 and may take a way down to 1.3478. Should 1.3850 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3974 and 1.4036 respectively. Chart formation of head and shoulders pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.3726 target at 1.3603 and stop loss at 1.3793

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.3793 target at 1.3911 and stop loss at 1.3726

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (20th September 2021 – 24th September 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Euro has initially rallied during the course of the trading week but later fell to form a bearish candle. The corporate has benefited from economic growth and price pressures wane failed to impress Wall Street, which remained in a downbeat mood. That supported the safe-haven dollar. Isabel Schanel, a German member of the European Central Bank, has said that inflation will significantly decrease early next year “in all likelihood.” This words also weighed on the euro. COVID-19 cases are at low levels and falls continuously in Europe while the US struggles with elevated infections.

Europe CPI monthly report on 14th Sep and Europe Current Account on 17th Sep created uptrend whereas Europe Quarterly Unemployment Rate on 13th Sep and Europe Trade Balance on 16th Sep created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Building Permits at Sep 21, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, ECB Non-monetary Policy Meeting, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Sep 22, ECB Economic Bulletin, US Initial Jobless Claims at Sep 23, Europe Ifo Business Climate and Fed Chair Powell Speech at Sep 24.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.34% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1845 and low at 1.1724 showed a movement of 121 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1684 may open a clean path towards 1.1643 and may take a way down to 1.1563. Should 1.1805 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1885 and 1.1926 respectively. Chart formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern breakout in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish harami formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.1725 target at 1.1644 and stop loss at 1.1769

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.1769 target at 1.1848 and stop loss at 1.1725

What are your Excuses in trading?

Excuses will never help you to achieve your goals- not only in trading, but also in life in general. Traders specialize in making excuses on a daily basis. But making excuses not only prevents you from growing and making it better, it can also lead to even worse trades. On the other hand, a trader who knows how to avoid making excuses can make a profit very quickly because he can avoid the costly mistakes that amateurs constantly make. If you find yourself making these excuses, change your mindset ASAP. Get out of your own way.

Opportunities are everywhere. It’s just a matter of some work on your end to leverage on them. That said, here are 5 very common excuses Forex traders make… that you should avoid from this:

I don’t have the time

Of all the single excuses I have heard, this one is by far the most pathetic.  I am so busy and do not have time to trade!  But guess what?  You DO have time! You have just as much time as anyone else.  You have 86,400 seconds a day, 365 days a year.  How you are using your time tends to be the real problem. 

You can utilize your time rather than spending more time on television and Social media sites. Add those hours up alone and you have just found yourself some time!  If you stop saying you don’t have time, you will even free up the time it took you to say it.

I don’t have money

This is one of the more acceptable excuses, not having enough money could make it impossible to actually start trading, what it doesn’t do though, is prevent you from learning, considering that learning is the first part of trading, there is no reason why you cannot begin doing this while you save up some money. As the years’ progress, however, the excuse of not having enough money has become almost obsolete, there are brokers allowing you to open up accounts with just $10, we know that you cannot execute proper risk management with such a small account, but it is a way to begin and to get a feel for the live markets.

Markets not favor for me

This is something that we see a lot, people take their time to analyse what they think is a good trade, they have put the time and effort in, they then place the trade and it goes the wrong way, or it starts to go well, then suddenly turns and zooms off in another direction. What happened? 

The markets must be against me, they obviously saw me put on this trade and then decided to go against me so I would lose my money. Reality check, the markets do not even care who you are, they do not notice the little money that you are putting into the markets. There are trillions trades each day on the markets, you $100 trade is nothing to it, not worth anyone’s time or effort to try and trade against it.

Traders often don’t realize how many things there are that can affect the markets. You can never prepare for them all, in fact, you can’t prepare for even half of them, news events, natural disasters, banks changing consensus, loads of things affect them, just because it went against you, doesn’t mean it was anything personal.

Trading Results are not in my control

An internal locus of control is essential for becoming a consistently profitable trader. You cannot succeed in trading, business, or life without being accountable. You WANT it to be your fault. If it’s your fault, you can fix it. The more accountable you are, the more control you have over your trading career. Focus on what you can control versus what you cannot:

You can Control your risk management, Position size, Strategy, Trading  plan, Pair Selection meanwhile the uncontrollable are Price action, Market news, Outcome of trade and what other traders do. But it can be overcome with placing take profit and stop loss.

Motivation

What is your favorite activity in life?  Why?  There is a good chance this activity evokes strong emotions of satisfaction and fulfils your desires and dreams.

Trading has to get you excited to the same extent. Being drawn to the lucrative profits is okay, but you really need to be passionate about the lifestyle that is embodied into reaching those lucrative profits.

Motivation is not something that can be taught, you either get it internally, externally or you lack it altogether.

You can walk a horse to water but you cannot make it drink. If you lack the motivation to free yourself from financial worries, be your own boss and live your dreams; then trading may not be for you. Once you start to see the bigger picture, motivation will never be a problem. It will be the solution.

Causes of Excuses

Making excuses is just one part of the equation. A person who is constantly making excuses for the previously discussed reasons lives in a dangerous mindset. Excuse-driven traders cannot become profitable because of their beliefs and actions. Making excuses will inevitably lead to the following:

Never see a growth

A trader who blames outside circumstances doesn’t look at how he can overcome his challenges. Even worse, such traders don’t even think that their bad trading performance is their own fault.

Self-limiting beliefs

Traders who are always looking for excuses don’t think that they can do anything to change their status-quo. Once a trader starts believing his own lies, he will not be able to look for ways out.

Massive regrets

Would have, should have and could have are common terms used by traders who are controlled by excuse-driven trading. Regrets and a wrong use of hindsight is a bad place to evaluate your performance from. It always makes things seem much worse than they actually are.

A state of pessimism

Personal growth isn’t possible when you come from a state of pessimism. Making excuses and blaming outside circumstances makes trading and the financial markets look like a bad place. If you always believe that you have a disadvantage or that the markets are rigged, it is impossible to live up to your full potential. Good traders operate from a state of passion and optimism.

Paranoid trader

These ties with the previous point. Believing that the markets are against you and that trading is an unfair undertaking creates fear. Fear is what holds you back and making good trading decisions becomes impossible.

Locked in your comfort zone

Excuses have the purpose to make everything look better than it actually is. Thus, it signals that there is no need to change anything. As we have said before, change can be intimidating.

Avoid proactive thinking and blocks creativity

Excuse-driven traders only look for the next best trading method, instead of looking at what is really holding them back.

Conclusion

Each of these excuses will stall your development process and can even lead you to quit entirely.  We often asked how to overcome challenges, rise above excuses and propel the trading dream into a successful career. The person in the mirror is the only person who can make you become a profitable trader. Get Educated, Get trained then implement. Dedicate yourself to trading. Open account now and start trading.

Upbeat economic data favors dollar

The dollar rose against most pairs today after the US Federal Reserve re-created strong US economic data expectations for Austerity measures. The movement of the cable pair is primarily driven by the gains at night in the green back. Demand for the US dollar has risen globally due to better-than-expected economic data and concerns about a rapid increase in delta divergent corona virus cases worldwide.

U.S. retail sales rose unexpectedly in August, up 0.7% from the previous month despite expectations of a 0.8% decline, while the Philadelphia Fed’s business sentiment poll also showed a big improvement. Yesterday’s figures helped control the cautious outlook on the U.S. economy after the soft consumer inflation reading and soft job growth data released earlier this month, which helped revive expectations for the early central bank.

Bank of England rate takers may be tempted to vote early next week on their Covid-19 stimulus plans, with a sluggish economy but rising inflation creates a tricky background. Last month, Michael Saunders was the only member of the Monetary Policy Committee to vote on the British central bank’s preliminary decision to buy government securities, based on which continued buying risks further exacerbating monetary policy in the future.

Since then, according to Tutor, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said four of the eight MPC members who voted last month – including himself – thought some initial conditions had been met to begin exploring the possibility of raising interest rates. They should weigh the data showing that the UK economy unexpectedly fell against the record rise in consumer price inflation last July, a nine-year high of 3.2% – higher than the BoE’s target. While the BoE has said inflation will rise to 4% by the end of this year, rising prices have put more pressure on officials to explain how it plans to remove the stimulus launched last year to help the economy by Covid.

Britain and the United States, on the other hand, are struggling to contain the international backlash over the nuclear submarine deal with Australia, fearing that the alliance could provoke China and provoke conflict in the Pacific. Boris Johnson told MPs that the Aukus Defence Agreement “not intended to be adversarial”. But Beijing accused all three countries of adopting a “Cold War mentality” and warned that it would be detrimental to their interests if it was not abandoned.

As concerns over the pace of global economic recovery mounted, the pound weakened over low investor risk appetite. Meanwhile, Brexit Minister David Frost said on Thursday that the special status accorded to the initial Brexit agreement upholds EU law. The move is expected to exacerbate the ongoing Cold War between the UK and the EU. For now, investors are focusing on UK retail data to gauge market sentiment.

GBP/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 1.3753 (S1), 1.3715 (S2), 1.3665 (S3).

Resistance: 1.3841 (R1), 1.3891 (R2), 1.3929 (R3).

Amidst all these catalysts favoring greenback and weighing on pound.We expect a bearish trend for GBP/USD.