XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (26th July 2021 – 30th July 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Yellow metal fell against the greenback in this week. Without any high-tier macroeconomic data releases and fundamental developments, risk perception remained the primary market driver earlier in the week. The sharp decline which was seen in Wall Street’s main indexes on Monday and Tuesday allowed the greenback to find demand. In the last week US Department of Labor reported there were 419,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US during the week ending July 17. This was worse than the market expectation of 350,000 but was largely ignored by traders.

In the upcoming week, a major news is the release of monetary statement. FOMC will announce its Interest Rate Decision and publish the Monetary Policy Statement. While delivering his prepared remarks at a congressional hearing earlier in the month, FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell said the job market was still a ways off from progress needed to begin the bond-buying taper.              

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, CB Consumer Confidence Index at July 27, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at July 28, GDP quarterly report, Initial Jobless Claims at July 29 and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at July 30 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.49% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1824.9 and low at 1789.6 showed a movement of 353 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bullish trend.  The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1821.2 may open a clean path towards 1840.7 and may take a way up to 1856.5. Should 1785.9 prove to be unreliable support, the XAUUSD may sink downwards 1770.1 and 1750.6 respectively.  In H4 chart bullish butterfly pattern favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bullish harami formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy: 1802.4 target at 1835.7 and stop loss at 1780.6

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 1780.6 target at 1751.3 and stop loss at 1802.4

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (26th July 2021 – 30th July 2021)

Fundamental view:

Australian dollar fell against the US dollar in this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia published the Minutes of its latest meeting, which portrayed that policymakers are compromised to maintain supportive monetary conditions, and repeated rates will remain at record lows until employment and inflation make a reach of the desired levels. Australian policymakers remained optimistic about the latest economic developments but are conscious that the latest lockdowns will delay monetary policy’s normalization. Elsewhere, The US Federal Reserve is having a monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, July 28, and it will focus will be on hints related to the future reduction of the current financial support which is the first step toward normalization.

US Building Permits monthly report on 20th July and Australia Retail Sales monthly report on 21st July created downtrend whereas US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change on 21st July and US Initial Jobless Claims 4-Week Average on 22nd July created uptrend for the Pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Deputy Governor Debelle Speech, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at July 27, Fed Interest Rate Decision at July 28, US GDP quarterly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at July 29, Australia PPI quarterly report and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at July 30.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.24% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7410 and low at 0.7289 showed a movement of 121 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7299 may open a clean path towards 0.7233 and may take a way down to 0.7178. Should 0.7420 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7475 and 0.7541 respectively. In H4 chart descending scallop pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7351 target at 0.7235 and stop loss at 0.7425

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7425 target at 0.7539 and stop loss at 0.7351

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (26th July 2021 – 30th July 2021)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar initially fell during the course of the week against the Japanese yen but then turned around to show signs of strength again. Covid cases are edging higher in Japan, including in Tokyo, where the delayed Olympic Games have begun. Reports about athletes and other officials testing positive are also coming in. Still, surveys show locals are wary the Games could bring in more variants and turn into a super-spreader event. The capital remains under a state of emergency. On the other hand, Coronavirus infections are rising in the US – mostly in under-vaccinated areas, but now in all 50 states, dampening prospects of tighter policy from the Fed.

US NAHB Housing Market Index on 19th July and US Initial Jobless Claims on 22nd July created downtrend whereas Japan Adjusted Trade Balance on 21st July and US Markit Manufacturing PMI on 23rd July created uptrend for pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoJ Governor Kuroda Speech, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at July 27, Fed Interest Rate Decision at July 28, Japan Retail Sales monthly report, Japan Industrial Production monthly report, US GDP quarterly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at July 29 and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at July 30.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.10% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 110.59 and low at 109.06 showed a movement of 153 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 111.07 may open a clean path towards 111.60 and may take a way up to 112.60. Should 109.54 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 108.54 and 108.01 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of extended-w pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bullish engulfing formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 110.56 target at 111.59 and stop loss at 110.02

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 110.02 target at 108.55 and stop loss at 110.56

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (26th July 2021 – 30th July 2021)

Fundamental view:

Pound showed a downward movement against the dollar in this week. All the brits are demanding for the quarantine due to rapid spread of delta virus elsewhere The UK is not only get in suffering from the rapid spread of the Delta variant, and broader markets have come to terms with the strain’s stranglehold on the recovery. The upswing in US infections and their impact on the economy made the investors rush towards to the safe haven asset- dollar which worked against the pound.

US Housing Starts on 20th July and Britain Retail Sales yearly report on 23rd July created downtrend whereas Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing on 21st July and US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change on 21st July created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are UK Nationwide HPI yearly report, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at July 27, Fed Interest Rate Decision at July 28, BoE Consumer Credit monthly report, US GDP quarterly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at July 29 and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at July 30.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.88% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3787 and low at 1.3572 showed a movement of 215 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 1.3619 may open a clean path towards 1.3488 and may take a way down to 1.3404. Should 1.3834 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3918 and 1.4049 respectively. Chart formation of rising wedge pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Harami pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.3745 target at 1.3566 and stop loss at 1.3839

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.3839 target at 1.4048 and stop loss at 1.3745