USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (14th Jun 2021 – 18th Jun 2021)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the week, ultimately forming a bit bull candle. The broad dollar’s demand has underpinned the pair, although the poor performance of government bond yields limited the advance.

Japan Coincident Index & Japan Leading Index on 7th June and Japan BoJ Money Stock yearly report on 9th June framed bearish trend whereas US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 9th June and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment on 11th June favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index monthly report, US Retail Sales monthly report, Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Jun 15, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Jun 16, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US Initial Jobless Claims at Jun 17 and BoJ Interest Rate Decision at Jun 18.  

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.44% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 109.83 and low at 109.18 showed a movement of 65 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 109.93 may open a clean path towards 110.20 and may take a way up to 110.58. Should 109.28 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 108.90 and 108.63 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of semi-w pattern breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bullish engulfing formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 109.65 target at 110.19 and stop loss at 109.23

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 109.23 target at 108.64 and stop loss at 109.65

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (14th Jun 2021 – 18th Jun 2021)

Fundamental view:

Pound traded low against dollar in the current week. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to announce a four-week delay to the last stage of the reopening. July 19 is the new June 21.  This acted as a major catalyst in the pound weakening.

Britain Halifax HPI yearly report on 7th June and Britain BRC Retail Sales yearly report on 8th June frames downtrend for the  pair whereas US Core CPI monthly report on 10th June, US Initial Jobless Claims 4-Week Average on 10th June frames uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are UK Claimant Count Change, BoE Governor Bailey Speech, US Retail Sales monthly report, Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Jun 15, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Jun 16, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US Initial Jobless Claims at Jun 17 and UK Retail Sales monthly report at Jun 18.  

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.41% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.4190 and low at 1.4072 showed a movement of 118 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.4057 may open a clean path towards 1.4005 and may take a way down to 1.3939. Should 1.4175 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.4241 and 1.4293 respectively. Chart formation of triple top pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Three black crows pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.4109 target at 1.4006 and stop loss at 1.4180

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.4180 target at 1.4292 and stop loss at 1.4109

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (14th Jun 2021 – 18th Jun 2021)

Fundamental view:

Euro traded low against dollar at fresh monthly lows and with increased bearish potential. Investors read reg past upwardly revised US inflation figures, which hit 5% YoY in May, accelerating at the fastest pace since 2008. The US Federal Reserve will have a monetary policy meeting next week, and the assessment of record inflation would be critical for the dollar’s direction.

Europe Factory Orders monthly report on 7th June and Europe Industrial Production monthly report & Europe Trade Balance on 8th June favored bearish trend whereas Europe Current Account n.s.a. 9th June and Europe Industrial Production monthly report on 10th June favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Industrial Production monthly report at Jun 14, US Retail Sales monthly report, Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Jun 15, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Jun 16, ECB Targeted LTRO, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and US Initial Jobless Claims at Jun 17.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.30% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2217 and low at 1.2092 showed a movement of 125 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.2060 may open a clean path towards 1.2014 and may take a way down to 1.1935. Should 1.2185 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2264 and 1.2310 respectively. Chart formation of a rounding top pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish Engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.2107 target at 1.2015 and stop loss at 1.2144

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.2144 target at 1.2263 and stop loss at 1.2107

Forex Vs Gambling

While doing Forex, some people feel like they haven’t done anything more than gambling. During their trades, the only real variable is luck, which sometimes acts in favor of them and sometimes leads them to a loss. Numerous attempts have been made to simplify trading in the forex market, and while a degree of success has been achieved in this area, trading forex is more than installing a trading platform, funding an account and clicking a buy or sell button on your computer.

In fact, trading has often been compared to gambling since a high degree of risk and speculative activity is involved. Before we dive right into how trading can become gambling, we should just clarify that there is a clear difference between the two and they are not interchangeable terms. One has to understand the underlying mechanisms of both activities and then determine whether they are exactly the same or not.

What is the main difference between trading and gambling?

The primary difference between the two is ‘probability’. With gambling, you are relying solely on ‘luck’. For example, when you roll a dice in a casino, you have no idea what number you’re going to get. In comparison, when you trade, you can analyse the market and predict where it is likely to go. You can implement a trading strategy and set yourself goals. There is a logic to trading and an ability to increase your chances of success. The gambler mentality will not lead to success in forex trading.

That said, forex trading can become forex gambling when you treat it that way. When you don’t set goals, analyse the market or even understand what you are doing. In gambling, the house always wins. In forex trading, you stand a chance of winning. You just need to act logically and with restraint.

We implore you, don’t be a forex gambler, be a forex trader. The easiest way to avoid forex gambling is with your practice and learning about Forex trading.

The signs of Gambling

Gambling addiction is just like any other form of addiction and there are a number of signs. To determine whether you are gambling in the Forex market, ask yourself the following questions:

  • Do you have a trading strategy which you have reason to believe gives you an edge over the market?
  • Do you ever risk more than 2% of your account on a single trade?
  • Are you trading with money you can’t afford to lose?
  • Are you just holding out for that next big trade?

 

If you answered yes to these questions it is a high probability you are gambling with your money in the Forex market, as compared to the professionals who approach their trading more cautiously, as they would running a business.

Gamblers do not see what they do as a business. Instead, they approach Forex with a dangerous zealousness. But here is exactly where Forex trading can differ from gambling. Traders can use a proven method such as Price Action trading to give themselves and edge over the market.

Most gamblers act on hope. Hope of the next win and hope that they can claw back the losses they have sustained. When Forex traders act on hope they get into very dangerous waters.

How to avoid Gambling in Forex

Realizing that you are trading like a gambler is a painful realization, but one that can be overcome by beginning to treat your trading like you would a career or a business. All businesses have a sound business plan, and your trading should be no different. Your business plan should contain the following elements:

  • Understanding of how much you will risk per trade
  • Entry and exit rules
  • Trade management rules
  • Times you will scan the market

 

Being realistic about what can be achieved in your trading plan is essential. Forex trading can make you money consistently but if you are opening an account with $1,000 you are very unlikely to make $1million and quit your job in the near future.

Moreover, every business must keep a record of money made and lost. Your trading should also have such a book or trade journal. Your trade journal should track all things such as trades placed and the outcomes including profit/loss and how you managed the trade.

Conclusion

Both in gambling and Forex involve concern risk and strategy. So for an untrained eye, it could seem the same. But there are key distinguishing factors between the two. Individuals can increase their chances of success in both. However, in gambling unlike Forex, the house will always retain the upper hand over the player. And all the different techniques can only reduce that upper hand, not remove it completely. In trading, however, people can flick the odds in a way that they hold the advantage.

There are lots of different advantages available in Forex . The most popular way is to do technical analysis, in these traders can analyze prior price movements and have some idea as to where the price will move next and other is fundamental analysis. Observing the current situation of a company, market, or a country gives the idea of Fundamental move. Another method of maintaining the advantage is risk management, which itself has many different elements. One of them is portfolio diversification: traders use different assets at the same time in order to reduce the risk of large losses and keep the account more stable. Moreover, gambling is just trying your luck while trading is backed by analysis. So, now you are sure that forex trading is not gambling.