BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (24th May 2021 – 28th May 2021)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin fell significantly during the last week . The main reason for the fall is Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla. Elon Musk’s tweet triggered a crash on May 12. Likewise, on May 16 Musk startled Bitcoin enthusiasts when he replied to a user and created confusion about Tesla having sold its BTC holdings. Although the CEO made a clarification about the confusion in a later tweet, Bitcoin price had already suffered the consequence. At the time of the panic-induced market crash, Musk alleviated the panic as he tweeted. China extending its crypto ban to include banks and payments companies offering crypto-related services furthered a selloff that briefly wiped $1 trillion off crypto market capitalisation.

Regardless of the current market conditions, US President Biden proposes to strengthen tax compliance for cryptocurrencies by requiring the investors to report transactions worth $10,000 or more to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), according to recent reports.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Governor Brainard Speech at May 24, CB Consumer Confidence Index at May 25, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at May 26, GDP quarterly report, Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at May 27 and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at May 28 for US. 

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 21.84% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 46548.3 and low at 29927.0 showed a movement of 16621 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bearish trend. The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 29227.7 may open a clean path towards 21266.7 and may take a way down to 12606.4. Should 45849.0 prove to be unreliable resistance, the BTCUSD may raise upwards 54509.3 and 62470.3 respectively. In H4 chart symmetrical triangle breakout downside favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing pattern constructs a bearish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Sell: 37000.5 target at 21266.8 and stop loss at 45854.4

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 45854.4 target at 62469.3 and stop loss at 37000.5

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (24th May 2021 – 28th May 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the week and finished the week with modest losses. Even though the greenback is having broad weakness, the AUD has failed to attract speculative interest of the traders.  The pair’s behavior has been directly correlated to that of Wall Street, which in turns moves only on sentiment. The US inflation and the government bonds yields remained the main decider in the market trend. News that some US policymakers are open to discuss a tighter monetary policy spurred an equities sell-off and pushed yields higher, giving the greenback a temporary respite.

The Reserve Bank of Australia also has published the Minutes of its latest meeting. Speculative interest was waiting for hints of a tighter monetary policy, as policymakers said that they would review it next July. 

US Housing Starts on 18th May and US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 19th May favored uptrend whereas Australia Commonwealth Bank Services PMI on 21st May and US Existing Home Sales & US Markit Manufacturing PMI on 21st May favored downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Governor Brainard Speech at May 24, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at May 25, Australia Construction Work Done quarterly report at May 26, Australia Private New Capital Expenditure quarterly report, US GDP quarterly report, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at May 27 and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at May 28.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.97% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7814 and low at 0.7711 showed a movement of 103 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7788 may open a clean path towards 0.7852 and may take a way up to 0.7891. Should 0.7685 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may sink downwards 0.7646 and 0.7582 respectively. In H4 chart bullish gartley pattern favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bullish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy: 0.7736 target at 0.7837 and stop loss at 0.7680

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 0.7680 target at 0.7583 and stop loss at 0.7736

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (24th May 2021 – 28th May 2021)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar has been somewhat negative during the trading week. This week’s Federal Reserve minutes has demonstrated once more that the market sensitivity to rate signals from the central bank and traders fears of missing the potential surge in interest rates and the dollar when that first notice of a change in policy arrives. Risk appetite play a crucial role in the market direction.

US NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index on 17th May and US Building Permits on 18th May favored bullish movement whereas Japan Capacity Utilization Rate on 19th May and Japan Trade Balance on 20th May favored bearish movement for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoJ Governor Kuroda Speech, Fed Governor Brainard Speech at May 24, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at May 25, Japan Unemployment Rate, US GDP quarterly report, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at May 27 and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at May 28.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.40% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 109.34 and low at 108.57 showed a movement of 77 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 108.57 may open a clean path towards 108.18 and may take a way down to 107.80. Should 109.34 prove to be unreliable resistance, the USDJPY may raise upwards 109.72 and 110.11 respectively.  In H4 chart, chart formation of three falling peaks pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend Along with a bearish spinning top formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Sell: 108.93 target at 108.19 and stop loss at 109.39

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 109.39 target at 110.10 and stop loss at 108.93

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (24th May 2021 – 28th May 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Euro has rallied during the last week and reached 1.22 level , this is because of the speculation that the Fed will have to tighten its ultra-loose monetary policy sooner than anticipated. Federal Bank chief Jerome Powell has repeated multiple times that the current policy will remain in place until they see further progress toward its goals of full employment and price stability. Europe’s vaccination campaign continues at full force and is supported the Euro.

US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions on 17th May and Europe Core CPI monthly report  on 19th May, Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI on 21st may favored bearish atmosphere whereas Europe CPI FOI excl. Tobacco monthly report on 17th May and Europe Construction Output on 20th May favored bullish atmosphere for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Governor Brainard Speech at May 24, Europe Ifo Business Climate, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at May 25, US GDP quarterly report, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report at May 27, Europe GDP quarterly report and US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at May 28. 

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.52% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2245 and low at 1.2139 showed a movement of 106 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.2237 may open a clean path towards 1.2294 and may take a way up to 1.2343. Should 1.2131 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.2082 and 1.2025 respectively. Chart formation of an ascending scallop’s pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Hammer formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.

Preference
Buy: 1.2179 target at 1.2283 and stop loss at 1.2126

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 1.2126 target at 1.2027 and stop loss at 1.2179