XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (03rd May 2021 – 07th May 2021)

Fundamental view:

Gold markets initially tried to rally during the course of the week but then pulled back again as they cannot seem to pick up enough momentum to continue going higher. TD Securities said in a note  that “While the global market is readying for an inflation overshoot, gold is underperforming.” “Institutional outflows continue to weigh on the yellow metal as nominal rates increasingly discount the singular reflation trade’s impact.” The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has hit a two-week high of 1.684 in the last week as bonds started selling off again after a spike this week in U.S. consumer confidence, which hit 14-month highs in April.

Apart from consumer spending, a lot of US economic data, from inflation to homebuilding, house prices and employment, have exceeded forecasts lately, boosting hopes for faster-than-expected recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.              

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Speech at May 03, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at May 05, Initial Jobless Claims at May 06, and Nonfarm Payrolls at May 07 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.44% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1790.0 and low at 1756.2 showed a movement of 338 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bearish trend.  The Instrument is trading below the 50 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1753.2 may open a clean path towards 1737.8 and may take a way down to 1719.5. Should 1787.0 prove to be unreliable resistance, the XAUUSD may raise upwards 1805.3 and 1820.7 respectively. In H4 chart bearish gartley pattern breakout favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 1769.7 target at 1738.2 and stop loss at 1792.5

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1792.5 target at 1819.7 and stop loss at 1769.7

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (03rd May 2021 – 07th May 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the course of the week but gave back the gains to close above 0.7600 level. The US Federal Reserve had a monetary policy meeting this week, and some analyst referred it as a dovish meeting, it was just like the usual wait-and-see.  Fed Chair Powell balanced a cautious tone over the risk of the pandemic with optimism about economic progress. He mentioned a couple times of a near-future when the country will be beyond the curve and has left coronavirus behind, but reminded market players that the economy still needs to recover 8.4 million jobs and that the Fed will not act until progress toward its goals on employment and inflation are materialized. The greenback has some reasons to look stronger but it is on hold ahead of clear picture and additional confirmations from macroeconomic figures.

US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change on 28th April and Australia Export Price Index quarterly report on 29th April favored bullish trend whereas US CB Consumer Confidence Index on 27th April and US Initial Jobless Claims on 29th April  favored bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Speech at May 03, RBA Interest Rate Decision, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at May 05, US Initial Jobless Claims at May 06, RBA Monetary Policy Statement, US Nonfarm Payrolls at May 07.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.03% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7818 and low at 0.7696 showed a movement of 122 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7665 may open a clean path towards 0.7620 and may take a way down to 0.7543. Should 0.7787 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7864 and 0.7909 respectively. In H4 chart double top pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted three black crows formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7710 target at 0.7621 and stop loss at 0.7792

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7792 target at 0.7908 and stop loss at 0.7710

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (03rd May 2021 – 07th May 2021)

Fundamental view:

USD traded strongly against the yen the course of the week, to pierce the ¥109 level. This is probably not about the US dollar, but because of the Japanese yen as it is getting hammered by several different currencies right now. In Japan, the BOJ has kept monetary policy unchanged as universally anticipated. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he is prepared to extend the pandemic relief programs beyond the September deadline. He did not expect inflation to reach its 2% target by the time of his retirement in early 2023. In the US, the central bank also left policy unchanged. Fed Chair Jerome Powell refused to speculate when or under what conditions the governors might reduce the $120 billion of monthly asset purchases that have pinned the short end of the Treasury yield curve.  

Japan BoJ Corporate Services Price Index yearly report on 26th April and Japan BoJ Trimmed Mean Core CPI on 27th April favored downtrend for the pair whereas US Durable Goods Orders monthly report on 26th April and Japan Construction Orders on 28th April favored uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Speech at May 03, BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at May 05, US Initial Jobless Claims at May 06, Japan Markit Services PMI, US Nonfarm Payrolls at May 07.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.49% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 109.37 and low at 107.64 showed a movement of 173 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 109.85 may open a clean path towards 110.48 and may take a way up to 111.58. Should 108.12 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 107.02 and 106.39 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of cup and handle pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bullish three inside up pattern formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 109.22 target at 110.47 and stop loss at 108.69

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 108.69 target at 107.03 and stop loss at 109.22

BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (03rd May 2021 – 07th May 2021)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin price shows considerable strength after springing from the recent crashes. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has  announced the launch of Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT) on May 3, which could see a lot of interest from retail investors. According to the firm’s senior managing director, Sean Tully, the decision to launch this new financial product comes after the company netted $4.70 million in revenues from its offering of Bitcoin Futures contracts in the first quarter of 2021. Now CME expects that the MBT would appeal to a broader audience due to its relatively smaller lot sizing and fee structure.

Gaming-focused venture capital fund Bitkraft Ventures, with more than $400 million in assets under management, has tied up with crypto research firm Delphi Digital to invest in crypto-assets and related projects. The demand from institutions also seems to be picking up in Asia. To cater to this demand, Huobi Asset Management has launched four cryptocurrency-related tracker funds. Along with new entrants, the existing investors are also looking to add to their crypto holdings. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said in a press release on April 30 that the company “will continue to acquire and hold additional bitcoin as we seek to create additional value for shareholders.” All these catalysts are favoring the Bitcoin bull.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Speech at May 03, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at May 05, Initial Jobless Claims at May 06, and Nonfarm Payrolls at May 07 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.56% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 58421.8 and low at 46872.2 showed a movement of 11549 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 62165.9 may open a clean path towards 66068.7 and may take a way up to 73715.5. Should 50616.3 prove to be unreliable support, the BTCUSD may sink downwards 42969.5 and 39066.7 respectively. In H4 chart W-Pattern breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend. Hammer pattern constructs a bullish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Buy: 57900.2 target at 66067.7 and stop loss at 50611.3

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 50611.3 target at 39067.6 and stop loss at 57900.2