USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (19th April 2021 – 23rd April 2021)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar has pulled back significantly during the course of the week to test the ¥109 level for support. With following the bouncing yields, the fall for the first four days as US Treasury yields saw their deepest losses in a month then rebounded as the credit market reversed on Friday. On the other hand, Interest rates in the first three months of the year quarter have responded to the brightening prospects for the US economy.

US Crude Oil Inventories on 14th April and US Natural Gas Storage on 15th April created uptrend for the pair whereas Japan PPI yearly report and US Federal Budget Balance on 12th April created downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Japan Industrial Production monthly report at April 19, Japan Tertiary Industry Activity monthly report at April 20, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at April 21, Japan National Core CPI yearly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at April 22, Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI and US Markit Manufacturing PMI at April 23.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.89% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 109.77 and low at 108.61 showed a movement of 116 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout above 109.49 may open a clean path towards 110.21 and may take a way up to 110.65. Should 108.33 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 107.89 and 107.17 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of bullish butterfly pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bullish hammer formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 108.75 target at 109.96 and stop loss at 108.20

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 108.20 target at 107.18 and stop loss at 108.75

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (19th April 2021 – 23rd April 2021)

Fundamental view:

Euro showed an uptrend against greenback in the past week reaching a 1.19 level. The major reason for that is the broad dollar’s weakness as the result of falling US Treasury yields. US policymakers have repeated multiple times this week that the ongoing massive stimulus program will remain in place until the economy actually recovers to pre-pandemic levels. 

US Core Retail Sales monthly report on 15th April and US Housing Starts on 16th April created downtrend for the pair whereas Europe Retail Sales on 12th April and ZEW Economic Situation on 13th April created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Bbk Monthly Report at April 19, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at April 21, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference, US Initial Jobless Claims at April 22, ECB President Lagarde Speech and US Markit Manufacturing PMI at April 23.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.57% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1995 and low at 1.1871 showed a movement of 124 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 1.1902 may open a clean path towards 1.1825 and may take a way down to 1.1778. Should 1.2026 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2073 and 1.2150 respectively. Chart formation of a Bearish deep crab pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Shooting star formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.1982 target at 1.1856 and stop loss at 1.2030

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.2030 target at 1.2149 and stop loss at 1.1982

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (19th April 2021 – 23rd April 2021)

Fundamental view:

The British pound rallied a bit during the week. Pound has managed to edge higher amid the UK reopening and dollar weakness. Apart from Covid news, Pound is set to rock in response to a series of top-tier UK data points. The main dollar drivers came from critical data points. In the meantime, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that the bank would first taper its bond-buying scheme and only then raise interest rates.

US Core CPI monthly report on 13th April and US Natural Gas Storage on 15th April created bearish trend whereas US Federal Budget Balance on 12th April and Britain Construction Output on 13th April created bullish trend for the pair.                       

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are UK Claimant Count Change at April 20, BoE Governor Bailey Speech, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at April 21, UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations, US Initial Jobless Claims at April 22, UK Retail Sales monthly report, UK Flash Manufacturing PMI and US Markit Manufacturing PMI at April 23.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.55% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3842 and low at 1.3669 showed a movement of 173 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 1.3723 may open a clean path towards 1.3609 and may take a way down to 1.3550. Should 1.3896 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3955 and 1.4069 respectively. Chart formation of bearish butterfly pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Harami pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.3833 target at 1.3665 and stop loss at 1.3901

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.3901 target at 1.2149 and stop loss at 1.3833

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (19th April 2021 – 23rd April 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has rallied significantly during the course of the week. The strength of Aussie is mainly due to the broad US dollar weakness and moderate recovery of Australian economy. US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell repeated that the central bank will maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy until actual data confirms an economic comeback. Australia will reopen its borders with New Zealand next week but will likely maintain the closure of other international borders, as coronavirus cases are on the rise outside the country.  Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that it is not safe to reopen international borders, adding that even vaccinating the local population is not enough to grant lifting travel restrictions. 

US Natural Gas Storage on 15th April and US Housing Starts on 16th April favored downtrend for the pair whereas US Federal Budget Balance on 12th April and Australia Employment Change & Unemployment Rate on 15th April favored uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Meeting Minutes at April 20, Australia Retail Sales monthly report, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at April 21, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence, US Initial Jobless Claims at April 22 and US Markit Manufacturing PMI at April 23.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.08% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7761 and low at 0.7585 showed a movement of 176 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 0.7620 may open a clean path towards 0.7514 and may take a way down to 0.7444. Should 0.7796 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7866 and 0.7972 respectively. In H4 chart bearish crab breakout favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted long leg doji formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7725 target at 0.7538 and stop loss at 0.7802

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7802 target at 0.7971 and stop loss at 0.7725