GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (12th April 2021 – 16th April 2021)

Fundamental view:

The pound has somewhat rallied a bit during the trading week to reach towards the 1.37 handle and then turned around and showed signs of weakness. The dollar has won the contest against the pound – profit-taking and vaccine issues have weighed on the pound more than Fed-related vulnerability has hurt the greenback.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson made an announcement that pubs, gyms and other places would reopen on April 12, initially giving sterling a boost. This move came as Britain’s COVID-19 cases continue falling and while US infections has followed a minor upswing. However, sterling was also hit by issues with its homegrown AstraZeneca vaccine. Another issue that pressured pound is the Brexit.

US ISM-NY Business Conditions Index & US Factory Orders monthly report on 5th April and Britain RICS House Price Balance on 8th April favored uptrend for the pair whereas US JOLTS Job Openings on 6th April and US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 7th April favored downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are UK GDP quarterly report, UK Manufacturing Production monthly report, US CPI monthly report at April 13, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 14, US Retail Sales monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at April 15 and US Building Permits at April 16.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.48% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3919 and low at 1.3670 showed a movement of 249 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.3608 may open a clean path towards 1.3515 and may take a way down to 1.3359. Should 1.3857 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.4013 and 1.4106 respectively. Chart formation of rounding top pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Engulfing pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.3713 target at 1.3516 and stop loss at 1.3862
Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.3862 target at 1.4105 and stop loss at 1.3713

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (12th April 2021 – 16th April 2021)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar has fallen significantly during the week to reach down towards the ¥109 level. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve published the Minutes of its March meeting, reiterating that the accommodative monetary policy will remain in place until substantial further progress is achieved on their employment and inflation goals. The document was no surprise and failed to trigger some action. The unfavorable US employment report has impacted the dollar last week.

On the other hand, Japan published its February Current Account , which posted a surplus of ¥2916.9 billion, largely surpassing the ¥1996 billion expected. The Trade Balance for the same month improved to ¥524.2 billion from ¥-130.1 billion in the previous month.

Japan Household Spending yearly report & Overtime Pay yearly report on 6th April and Japan Coincident Index on 7th April created bullish movement whereas  US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change on 7th April and Japan Current Account n.s.a.on 8th April created bearish movement for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoJ M2 Money Stock yearly report at April 12, US CPI monthly report at April 13, BoJ Governor Kuroda Speech, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 14, US Retail Sales monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at April 15 and US Building Permits at April 16.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.19% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 110.75 and low at 109.00 showed a movement of 175 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 50 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 108.85 may open a clean path towards 108.05 and may take a way down to 107.10. Should 110.60 prove to be unreliable resistance, the USDJPY may raise upwards 111.55 and 112.35 respectively.  In H4 chart, Formation of inverted cup and handle pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bearish trend Along with a shooting star formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Sell: 109.68 target at 108.06 and stop loss at 110.65

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 110.65 target at 112.34 and stop loss at 109.68

BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (12th April 2021 – 16th April 2021)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin rallied against the greenback in the previous week.  The prices of Bitcoin look primed to advance further despite the ongoing consolidation phase.

The billionaire Peter Thiel questioned whether Bitcoin could be a “Chinese financial weapon” and urged the U.S. government to consider tighter regulations. China has managed to control for more than 65% of the Bitcoin network’s hashing power. Such high levels of concentration have been a focal point of concern for several years. Especially when considering that the U.S. hashrate share is nearly nine times smaller than that of China and most mining equipment manufacturers are headquartered in the Asian nation. 

The SEC published a public notice Friday announcing it would begin evaluating the WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust, which the ETF giant filed with Cboe BZX Exchange. WisdomTree first filed for this ETF last month, but has previously attempted to launch a regulated financial product with exposure to cryptocurrencies.

A bitcoin ETF would provide retail and institutional investors a chance to invest in a regulated financial product incorporating the world’s oldest cryptocurrency, without requiring them to invest in the crypto directly.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are CPI monthly report at April 13, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 14, Retail Sales monthly report, Initial Jobless Claims at April 15 and Building Permits at April 16 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.01% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 59403.1 and low at 55359.7 showed a movement of 4043 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 60079.9 may open a clean path towards 61793.2 and may take a way up to 64123.3. Should 56036.5 prove to be unreliable support, the BTCUSD may sink downwards 53676.4 and 51993.1 respectively. In H4 chart bullish ABCD pattern formation favors prospects of a bullish trend. Bullish harami pattern constructs a bullish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

 Preference
Buy: 58305.4 target at 61762.2 and stop loss at 56031.5

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 56031.5 target at 51994.6 and stop loss at 58305.4

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (12th April 2021 – 16th April 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Euro edged higher this week, reaching a high of 1.1927.  The unfavorable US employment report released yesterday was the main reason behind the broad dollar weakness. In the past week, Wall Street rallied to unexplored territory, while government bond yields remained subdued throughout the week, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note losing the 1.70% level.

“We are not really looking at forecasts for this purpose, we are looking at actual progress” – Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, has said on the bank’s commitment to act only when the economy fully recovers. For the dollar, that has meant additional.

US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 7th April and Europe Trade Balance & Europe Industrial Production yearly report on 9th April favored bearish trend for the pair whereas US ISM-NY Business Conditions Index & US Factory Orders monthly report on 5th April and Europe Consumer Confidence on 6th April favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe Retail Sales monthly report at April 12, Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator, US CPI monthly report at April 13, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 14, US Retail Sales monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at April 15, Eurogroup Meeting and US Building Permits at April 16.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.12% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1927 and low at 1.1738 showed a movement of 189 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.1967 may open a clean path towards 1.2042 and may take a way up to 1.2156. Should 1.1778 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1664 and 1.1589 respectively. Chart formation of a bullish flag pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.

Preference
Buy: 1.1890 target at 1.2041 and stop loss at 1.1773

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 1.1773 target at 1.1590 and stop loss at 1.1890