EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (5th April 2021 – 9th April 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Euro has fallen a bit during the course of the week, reaching down towards the 1.17 level before bouncing on Thursday as traders closed out their positions heading into the Easter weekend.  The dollar peaked on Wednesday, as US Treasury yields reached late on Tuesday a fresh over one-year highs, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hitting 1.77%. The greenback’s strength faded afterwards on thursday, as the same yield retreated to 1.67% ahead of the close.

Europe CPI m/m & HICP monthly report & Europe Unemployment on 31st March created bullish trend for the pair. whereas US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on 29th March, Europe Import Price Index yearly report, Europe Retail Sales y/y, Europe PPI y/y & US CB Consumer Confidence Index on 30th March created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are IMF Meeting, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at April 05, Europe Unemployment Rate, US JOLTS Job Openings at April 06, FOMC Minutes at April 07, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US Initial Jobless Claims and Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 08.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.29% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1794 and low at 1.1704 showed a movement of 90 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1711 may open a clean path towards 1.1663 and may take a way down to 1.1622. Should 1.1801 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1842 and 1.1891 respectively. Chart formation of a Bearish butterfly pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish Engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.1765 target at 1.1664 and stop loss at 1.1806

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.1806 target at 1.1905 and stop loss at 1.1765

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (5th April 2021 – 9th April 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar has fallen significantly during the course of the week but also recovered as traders covered positions heading into the Easter weekend. Market Sentiment continues to lead the way, mainly centered on a US economic comeback, moreover after US President Joe Biden finally unveiled his investment proposal. In the past week, Australian data was mixed whereas US data was mostly upbeat.

Australia Building Approvals monthly report on 31th March and US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change on 1st April created bullish trend for the pair whereas US CB Consumer Confidence Index on 30th March and Australia Trade Balance on 1st April created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are IMF Meeting, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at April 05, RBA Interest Rate Decision, US JOLTS Job Openings at April 06, FOMC Minutes at April 07, US Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 08 and RBA Financial Stability Review at April 09.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.20% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7664 and low at 0.7532 showed a movement of 132 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7539 may open a clean path towards 0.7469 and may take a way down to 0.7407. Should 0.7671 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7733 and 0.7803 respectively. In H4 chart inverted cup and handle pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted shooting star formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7602 target at 0.7470 and stop loss at 0.7676

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7676 target at 0.7802 and stop loss at 0.7602

BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (5th April 2021 – 9th April 2021)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin showed a upward move against the greenback in the past week. Bitcoin price came with 440% returns over the last six months, 108% in Q1, and almost 30% this month reflect the evolution of BTC from a speculative asset to a means of payment and a store of value for individual and institutional investors.

Tesla recently introduced the ability to purchase automobiles with BTC, payment processing leader Visa announced the full integration of the USDC stablecoin into their payment system, and PayPal is about to offer clients the ability to instantly convert their Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, or Bitcoin Cash to US dollars that PayPal then uses to pay merchants. All these recent news has favored the Bitcoin.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are IMF Meeting, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at April 05, JOLTS Job Openings at April 06, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes at April 07, Initial Jobless Claims, and Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 08 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 2.86% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 60067.9 and low at 54692.6 showed a movement of 5375 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 61284.1 may open a clean path towards 63363.7 and may take a way up to 66659.4. Should 55908.8 prove to be unreliable support, the BTCUSD may sink downwards 52613.1 and 50533.5 respectively. In H4 chart Inverse head and shoulders breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend. Bullish engulfing pattern constructs a bullish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Buy: 59150.6 target at 63362.7 and stop loss at 55909.8

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 55909.8 target at 50534.5 and stop loss at 59150.6

XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (5th April 2021 – 9th April 2021)

Fundamental view:

Gold started the week with a positive node but later suffered heavy losses after it broke below the lower limit of its two-week-old range at $1,720.  The upsurge in yields helped the greenback to gather strength and pushed the yellow metal down while rising global equity indexes gave a helping hand to gold by pressuring greenback.

The data published by the Institue for Supply Management (ISM) in the last week showed that the business activity in the US manufacturing sector expanded at its most robust pace since 1983 with the PMI jumping to 64.7 from 60.8 which was better than the expectation. US President Joe Biden unveiled the highly-anticipated economic plan that aims to ramp up spending by $2.25 trillion with substantial investments in infrastructure. These news made the US dollar strong against the gold in the previous week.              

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are IMF Meeting, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at April 05, JOLTS Job Openings at April 06, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes at April 07, Initial Jobless Claims, and Fed Chair Powell Speech at April 08 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.73% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1732.9 and low at 1677.9 showed a movement of 550 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bullish trend.  The Instrument is trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1748.5 may open a clean path towards 1768.2 and may take a way up to 1803.5. Should 1693.5 prove to be unreliable support, the XAUUSD may sink downwards 1658.5 and 1638.5 respectively. In H4 chart formation of a rounding bottom favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted three outside up pattern formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy: 1727.8 target at 1767.9 and stop loss at 1690.5

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 1690.5 target at 1639.7 and stop loss at 1727.8