EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (15th March 2021 – 19th March 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Euro went back and forth during the course of this week. In this week, The ECB decided to maintain rates and leave quantitative easing unchanged, as expected but announced it would significantly step up the pace of bond-buying to grant financial stability. Governmental support and ultra-loose central banks’ policies are still short of boosting economic growth. Amidst all the updates, there was uptrend in EUR against Dollar.

Europe Industrial Production monthly report on 8th March and Europe Current Account n.s.a on 9th March created downtrend for the pair whereas Europe Industrial Production & Europe PPI monthly report on 10th March and US EIA Natural Gas Storage on 11th March created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator, US Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 16, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 17, ECB Targeted LTRO, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and US Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 18.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.06% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1990 and low at 1.1836 showed a movement of 154 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1860 may open a clean path towards 1.1771 and may take a way down to 1.1706. Should 1.2014 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2079 and 1.2168 respectively. Chart formation of an ascending triangle pattern breakout downside in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.1950 target at 1.1802 and stop loss at 1.2019

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.2019 target at 1.2167 and stop loss at 1.1950

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (15th March 2021 – 19th March 2021)

Fundamental view:

The British pound tried to rally against the greenback in the previous week. During this week, The US conducted three bond auctions and all were calmer than some had feared. Robust demand for US debt helped temporarily pushes returns lower, weighing on the dollar. However, expectations for strong growth in the world’s largest economy meant that the lid did not stay there for long. Whereas  US data was mixed, with jobless claims surprising with a bigger drop than expected while inflation remains tame for now. 

US Wholesale Sales monthly report on 8th March and US Core CPI monthly report on 10th March created downtrend for the pair whereas US Federal Budget Balance & EIA Natural Gas Storage Change on 11th March and Britain BRC Retail Sales yearly report on 9th March created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 16, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 17, BoE Interest Rate Decision, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 18 and UK GfK Consumer Confidence at Mar 19.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.09% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.4005 and low at 1.3800 showed a movement of 205 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.3806 may open a clean path towards 1.3700 and may take a way down to 1.3601. Should 1.4011 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.4110 and 1.4215 respectively. Chart formation of bearish gartley pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.3934 target at 1.3742 and stop loss at 1.4016

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy:  1.4016 target at 1.4214 and stop loss at 1.3934

XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (15th March 2021 – 19th March 2021)

Fundamental view:

Gold markets have gone back and forth during the course of the week. At the beginning of the week, the data from China revealed that Exports in February made a surge by 60.6% on a yearly basis and beat the market expectation for an increase of 38.9% with a wide margin. As a negative node, Germany’s Destatis reported on Monday that the Industrial Industriction in January contracted by 2.5% on a monthly basis.

US Department of Labor’s weekly publication showed that the Initial Jobless Claims fell to the lowest post-pandemic level of 712K in the week ending March 5. With risk flows starting to dominate financial markets on the back of this upbeat data, the S&P 500 Index climbed to a new all-time high on Thursday and put additional weight on the greenback’s shoulders.              

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 16, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 17, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 18 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.14% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1739.9 and low at 1676.8 showed a movement of 631 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bearish trend.  The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1689.1 may open a clean path towards 1651.4 and may take a way down to 1626.0. Should 1752.2 prove to be unreliable resistance, the XAUUSD may raise upwards 1777.6 and 1815.3 respectively. In H4 chart bearish shark pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 1722.8 target at 1672.4 and stop loss at 1757.2

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1757.2 target at 1814.2 and stop loss at 1722.8

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (15th March 2021 – 19th March 2021)

Fundamental view:

Aussie showed a confusing trend against greenback in the previous week. The greenback strengthened on the back of soaring government bond yields. Whereas, The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that “the bank remains committed to the three-year yield target,” but he did not leave alone with words, he turned to deeds. The RBA stopped the Commonwealth treasury and lended out three-year government bonds. it massively increased the cost of borrowing these bonds, making it prohibitively expensive to short-sell them. US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell has repeated multiple times those changes to the monetary policy do not depend on yields but mostly on a recovery in the employment sector. These different stances give an advantage to the aussie.

US Wholesale Sales on 8th March and US Michigan Consumer Expectations on 12th March favored bearish trend whereas Australia NAB Business Confidence on 9th March and US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 10th March favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 16, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 17, Australia Employment Change, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 18 and Australia Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 19.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.47% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7801 and low at 0.7621 showed a movement of 180 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 0.7653 may open a clean path towards 0.7547 and may take a way down to 0.7473. Should 0.7832 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7906 and 0.8012 respectively. In H4 chart bearish bat pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7765 target at 0.7602 and stop loss at 0.7838

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7838 target at 0.8011 and stop loss at 0.7765