BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (15th March 2021 – 19th March 2021)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin has rallied against greenback in the past week. Bitcoin price has been supported by corporations’ broadening interest to use it as an investment alternative such as Tesla, Microstrategy, and Square. The endorsement of prominent figures like Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Howard Marks has sparked institutional demand for BTC.

In a recent interview on the Thinking Crypto podcast, Hester Peirce, a commissioner at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, said that Gary Gensler’s nomination to be the President of the SEC could lead to greater regulatory clarity being given to the crypto sector. If that happens, several institutional investors may jump in and purchase Bitcoin. Another possible instrument that may attract both institutions and retail investors is a Bitcoin ETF.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 16, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 17, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 18 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 9.47% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 58080.6 and low at 49224.2 showed a movement of 8856 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 59846.1 may open a clean path towards 63391.5 and may take a way up to 68702.4. Should 50989.8 prove to be unreliable support, the BTCUSD may sink downwards 45678.8 and 42133.4 respectively. In H4 chart Semi-W chart pattern formation favors prospects of a bullish trend. Bullish engulfing pattern constructs a bullish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Buy: 56140.6 target at 63390.5 and stop loss at 50984.8

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 50984.8 target at 42134.4 and stop loss at 56140.6

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (15th March 2021 – 19th March 2021)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar has rallied significantly against the yen during this week. The US House has passed on Wednesday the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill and President Joe Biden signed it on Friday. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note stands at 1.49%. Japan published the February Producer Price Index, which rose 0.4% MoM, below the previous 0.5%. The annual reading came in at -0.7%, as expected. 

Japan Labor Cash Earnings yearly report & Japan GDP Price Index yearly report on 8th March created bullish trend, US Federal Budget Balance & EIA Natural Gas Storage Change on 11th March created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Japan Industrial Production monthly report, US Retail Sales monthly report at Mar 16, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision at Mar 17, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US Initial Jobless Claims at Mar 18 and BoJ Interest Rate Decision at Mar 19.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.54% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 109.23 and low at 108.27 showed a movement of 96 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 109.38 may open a clean path towards 109.79 and may take a way up to 110.34. Should 108.42 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 107.86 and 107.46 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of cup and handle pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bullish hammer formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 108.95 target at 109.78 and stop loss at 108.38

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 108.38 target at 107.47 and stop loss at 108.95

The trillion dollar package still remains the headline

USD/JPY stays firm. There revolves a positive sentiment for greenback as traders cheer US President Joe Biden’s passage of $1.9 trillion stimulus. Bulls are chained ahead of the key speech from US President.

Recently the $1.9 trillion package has been approved to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19), There are also chatters taking place that US President Biden has a $2.5 trillion infrastructure plan is on the way that will be proposed next month.

The $ 1.9 trillion bill includes $1,400 payments, an extension of jobless benefits, and a child tax credit that is expected to lift millions out of poverty. In a major legislative win for Mr Biden, the spending bill, one of the largest in US history, passed Congress without a single Republican supporter. Meanwhile, Biden says that his stimulus will fuel a faster US recovery while the jobs outlook is still dull.

Biden also says, that by the end of May will have vaccines for all Americans. “My fellow Americans,” he said, ”you’re owed nothing less than the truth. And for all of you asking when things will get back to normal, here is the truth. The only way to get our lives back, to get our economy back on track, is to beat the virus.” Biden said that they are on track to reach goal of giving 100 million covid shots by his 60th day in office.

The latest news of the Vaccine updates from Novavax and AstraZeneca are important that adds to the risk sentiment in the market as the former suggests the upbeat capacity to battle the UK covid strains whereas the later conveys the inability to match delivery targets for the European Union (EU).

On the other hand,  latest news has arrived. Japan needs to unleash nearly USD700 billion in extra spending to ensure a quick and sustainable recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, Kozo Yamamoto, an influential Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmaker, said on Friday.

USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 108.30 (S1), 108.10 (S2), 107.84 (S3)

Resistance: 108.75 (R1), 109.01 (R2), 109.21 (R3).

Amidst all the catalysts favoring greenback against yen, we expect a bullish trend for USD/JPY.

US consumer prices favors greenback

The dollar has overcame losses against currencies on Thursday after soft data on U.S. consumer price data.

U.S. core consumer prices had risen 1.3% year-on-year in February, a slight slowdown from a 1.4% annual increase in the previous month as per data showed on Wednesday. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have rose steadily due to expectations that the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy and fiscal stimulus will stoke inflation, but the subdued price data took some momentum away from the greenback.

Sentiment for the dollar is on the positive node as the U.S. economy is recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus bill has won final approval in Congress, so any other further downtrend in the dollar is not about to take place.

Today the House Democrats passed their relief bill of $1.9 trillion, encompassing every person and industry vastly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. A few key things that will be included are a $1,400 check to all Americans making less than $80,000 a year and extending the jobless claims benefits to more people until September 6th.

An auction of 30- year Treasuries is much awaited. An auction of 10-year Treasuries on Wednesday was met with sufficient demand, easing concerns about investors’ ability to absorb an increase in debt needed to finance the response to the coronavirus.

On the contrary, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s tough stand versus China and Iran seems to test the risks ahead of his first official trip that will begin on March 18. These plays helped US equities but futures await more clues to extend the latest optimism. As a result, today’s ECB and weekly US Jobless Claims should be watched closely ahead of US President Biden’s speech that could please the risk-takers and favor US dollar bears.

USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 108.17 (S1), 107.96 (S2), 107.59 (S3).

Resistance: 108.75 (R1), 109.13 (R2), 109.33 (R3).

Amidst all the catalysts creating cautious optimism for greenback, we expect a short term bearish trend for USD/JPY.