BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (15th February 2021 – 19th February 2021)

Fundamental view:

This past week has been extremely beneficial for BTC and it jumped by 30% since Monday 8. Several positive announcements, especially Tesla purchasing $1.5 billion worth of the digital asset propelled the flagship crypto currency to new highs. Earlier by this week on Monday, Tesla Inc, bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin. Additionally, the electric-vehicle company also said it will start accepting Bitcoin as a payment option in the near future. 

The digital asset surpassed $900 billion in market capitalization for the first timer, close to $1 trillion. This fact seems to catch the eye of big institutions as on February 11, the oldest American bank. BNY Mellon announced a new service of Crypto Custody. The custodian bank holds around $41 trillion in assets and is moving into crypto.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Governor Bowman Speech at Feb 16, Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Feb 17, Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at Feb 18, and FOMC Member Rosengren Speech at Feb 19 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 19.49% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 48922.3 and low at 37309.7 showed a movement of 11613 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 51826.8 may open a clean path towards 56180.8 and may take a way up to 63439.4. Should 40214.2 prove to be unreliable support, the BTCUSD may sink downwards 32955.6 and 28601.6 respectively.  In H4 chart Symmetrical triangle breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend. Bullish spinning top pattern constructs a bullish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Buy: 47720.7 target at 56179.8 and stop loss at 40209.4

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 40209.4 target at 29722.6 and stop loss at 47720.7

XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (15th February 2021 – 19th February 2021)

Fundamental view:

The XAU/USD pair started the week on a firm footing and climbed to a weekly high of $1,855 on Wednesday supported by the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the greenback. However, with the USD regaining its strength in the second half of the week, XAU/USD came under pressure but it closed with a bullish candle at the end of the week.

In the absence of significant macroeconomic data releases and fundamental developments, the sharp decline witnessed in the US Treasury bond yields weighed on the USD and allowed XAU/USD to gain traction.              

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Governor Bowman Speech at Feb 16, Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Feb 17, Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at Feb 18, and FOMC Member Rosengren Speech at Feb 19 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.88% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1855.4 and low at 1807.8 showed a movement of 476 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bearish trend.  The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1803.2 may open a clean path towards 1781.7 and may take a way down to 1755.6. Should 1850.8 prove to be unreliable resistance, the XAUUSD may raise upwards 1876.9 and 1898.4 respectively. In H4 chart Rounding top pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted three black crows formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell:  1823.6 target at 1782.7 and stop loss at 1855.8

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1855.8 target at 1897.4 and stop loss at 1823.6

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (15th February 2021 – 19th February 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Pound has recovered against greenback in the past week. One in every five Brits has received at least one covid vaccine dose – double the rate than in the US and far above Europe. The immunization campaign continues at full force, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson has urged further patience. Still, forex traders tend to move first and ask questions later, sending sterling higher. 

US CB Employment Trends Index on 8th Feb and US CPI m/m & US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 10th Feb favored bearish trend whereas Britain BRC Retail Sales yearly report on 9th Feb and Production monthly report & Manufacturing Production monthly report favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Governor Bowman Speech at Feb 16, Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Feb 17, BoE MPC Member Saunders Speech, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at Feb 18, UK Retail Sales monthly report, and FOMC Member Rosengren Speech at Feb 19.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.77% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3866 and low at 1.3680 showed a movement of 186 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.3729 may open a clean path towards 1.1.3612 and may take a way down to 1.3543. Should 1.3915 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3983 and 1.4100 respectively. Chart formation of inverted cup and handle pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Three black crows pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.3835 target at 1.3651 and stop loss at 1.3921

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy:  1.3921 target at 1.4099 and stop loss at 1.3835

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (15th February 2021 – 19th February 2021)

Fundamental view:

The AUD/USD pair advanced for a second consecutive week, recovering from the 0.7700 threshold. The main reason was the generalized dollar weakness, amid tepid US employment data spiced with some dovish comments from US Federal Reserve head, Jerome Powell. The Fed president said that there’s a long way ahead to achieve full employment, adding that rates will likely remain at lows until the sector is fully recovered.

US CB Employment Trends Index on 8th Feb and US Real Earnings monthly report on 10th Feb favored bullish trend whereas Australia NAB Business Confidence on 9th Feb and Australia MI Inflation Expectation on 11th Feb favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Meeting Minutes, Fed Governor Bowman Speech at Feb 16, Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Feb 17, Australia Employment Change, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at Feb 18, and FOMC Member Rosengren Speech at Feb 19.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.21% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7772 and low at 0.7651 showed a movement of 121 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7684 may open a clean path towards 0.7607 and may take a way down to 0.7563. Should 0.7804 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7848 and 0.7924 respectively. In H4 chart, if breakout of the rising wedge is to the downside then bearish expectation is favored. Also to be noted bearish spinning top formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7758 target at 0.7679 and stop loss at 0.7809

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7809 target at 0.7923 and stop loss at 0.7758