ECB’s steps fail to boost Euro

In a welcome news with a kick start at the beginning of the month, Ursula Von der Leyen,  AstraZeneca will start deliveries of its COVID-19 vaccines one week earlier than expected. The Chief of the EU also added that the Anglo-Swedish pharma company will deliver nine million more doses of its vaccine to the Union in the first quarter of this year, by making a total of 40 million for the period. The company would expand its manufacturing capacity in Europe as It is crucial to prepare for the appearance of such variants.

Elsewhere, The European Central Bank’s chief economist Philip Lane played down the prospect of the ECB buying stocks or bank bonds as part of its pandemic-fighting efforts, saying in a newspaper interview published on Sunday these were not in its toolbox.

Lane told German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung said “The ECB and the Eurosystem have many excellent monetary economists, so everything is considered at some level.” “But these measures are not part of our current toolbox. Our active toolbox is a combination of our short term rates, asset purchases, targeted lending and our forward guidance.”

On Friday, Reuters quoted five sources as saying that the central bank is unlikely to reduce its already-record low policy rate to counter the coronavirus-induced slowdown, as it would have a limited impact on the economy. Besides, the euro’s exchange rate is still within its historical range, despite having rallied by 14% against the dollar since March.

The markets were caught off guard last week after Dutch central bank’s governor Klaas Knot signaled scope for a deeper cut in the Deposit Facility Rate, which is currently at minus 0.5%.

On the other hand, Bank of America Global Research sees a scope for a downside correction in the coming week “The EU economy is weak and is weakening further. The lockdown continues, and vaccination has been disappointingly slow,” the bank noted.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 1.2100 (S1), 1.2067 (S2), 1.2039 (S3).

Resistance: 1.2161 (R1), 1.2189 (R2), 1.2223 (R3).

Amidst all the catalysts expected to favor the Euro but the news fails to impact the Euro and we expect a mixed trend for EUR/USD.

What is mean by Indicator based trading in Forex?

Indicator based trading is a method of trading using technical analysis indicators that help identify market analytics. An indicator handles price data using a mathematical formula. Technical analysis indicators are preferred by some traders because they believe that these indicators allow them to predict exactly what the market will do and where it will go. If you learn to use indicators effectively. Indicator-based trading relies on indicators to analyze prices and provide trading signals. Many indicators provide a specific trading signal that warns the trader that it is time to trade now. This will be easier than learning to read price charts.

Here we will see how it works in Forex market?

Choosing Indicators to Develop a Strategy

The type of indicator a trader uses to develop a strategy depends on what type of strategy the individual plans on building. This relates to trading style and risk tolerance. A trader who seeks long-term moves with large profits might focus on a trend-following strategy, and, therefore, utilize a trend-following indicator such as a moving average. A trader interested in small moves with frequent small gains might be more interested in a strategy based on volatility. Again, different types of indicators may be used for confirmation.

Indicator based Trading Strategies

There are thousands of indicators, and new ones are being created all the time. By combining indicators and using indicators in different ways, there are also countless trading methods involving indicators. The indicator shows a visual representation of the mathematical formula and price inputs. To a skilled chart reader or trader, an indicator often won’t reveal more than what is visible just by analyzing the price chart (or volume) without any indicators.

There are a few common types of indicator strategies: Here we explained two of it.

  • Crossover Strategy

 

 

This is when either price or an indicator crosses paths with another indicator. Price crossing a moving average is one of the most straightforward indicator strategies.

An alternative version of the price-crossover strategy is when a shorter-term moving average crosses a longer-term moving average. This is called a moving average crossover.

Crossovers occur in many indicators. For example, the MACD provides crossover signals when the MACD line crosses the signal line, or when the MACD or signal line crosses above or below zero.

Other crossover type signals include an RSI moving above 70 or 80 and then back below, indicating the overbought condition may be proceeding with a pullback. Similarly, a drop below 20 or 30, followed by a rally back above 20 or 30, indicates the oversold condition could be relieved by a rally.

  • Uptrends and Downtrends 

 

Many indicators act as a confirmation tool. If a trader sees an uptrend on the price chart, indicators such as the RSI, MACD or moving averages (as well as many other indicators) help assess the strength of that uptrend. Such indicators also aid in confirming reversals and downtrends. 

These are just examples of strategies and not recommendations. Each trader must find indicators that work for them and produce a profit. Many strategies do not produce a profit, even though they are popular and well known.

Advantages of Indicator Based Trading

The main benefit of indicators is that they simplify price moves. New traders may find the simple movements of an indicator easier to interpret than the complex gyrations of the price chart. Note that “easier” in this case doesn’t mean more profitable. Indicators are an excellent tool for learning how to spot weakness or strength in the price though, such as when a trend is weakening.

For the new trader, this may be difficult to assess on a price chart, but with the aid of some indicators, they are made aware of subtle changes they have not yet trained themselves to see on the price chart.

Myths of Indicators

While we are at it, let’s discuss the 3 most common indicator myths and by the end, you will be able to see why the majority of traders is usually wrong about indicator trading.

  • Indicators lag

Let us start with the most ignorant myth first to get it out of the way. Indicator “signals” have no lag in them and a look at how any indicator works will immediately show this. However, an indicator will give you a signal as soon as the candlestick has closed. This is the exact SAME moment when the candlestick gives you the signal too.  A candlestick pattern can only be confirmed once the candle has closed too. Only amateurs who blindly jump in and out of the market during the candle duration believe that they experience lag. However, their price action trading is also not profitable because they never wait for confirmed information and react impulsively. Indicators use a “period” setting which means that they analyze the price action over a past time period. This is not the same as lag, but it’s a way of coming up with exact and robust information about what has happened and what is happening right now. Indicators provide meaningful data by looking at a broader market context which usually provides superior results.

  • Indicators are messy – price action is clean

This comes very close to being the most ignorant statement. Any chart can be made messy and/or clean. It is not uncommon for price action traders to get lost drawing too many support/resistance lines, trendlines, etc. until they end up with paralysis by analysis because they do not know what to focus on. Or, price action traders who trade purely naked charts easily feel lost when they do not have reference points. The same is true for indicators. You need to find the sweet spot between information overload and not enough. But saying that only price action is a clean way of trading is probably as wrong as it gets.

  • Price is king

Really? And what does this even mean? Price action essentially is also just a way of visualizing trading data. Is price action then not just also a derivate of something else? Indicators do not add or subtract anything from price action AND indicators are usually better than looking at price action alone. Each indicator has been built for a very specific purpose and, thus, is the specialist in a certain way of trading. Whereas price action is more a raw form that still has to be put into the right context.

 

Limitations of Indicator Based Trading

The main drawback of indicators is that while they appear easy to use on the surface, most traders have no idea what is going on “under the hood” of the indicator. So they don’t know when the indicator will provide good signals and bad signals.

Every indicator has a vulnerability; something that makes it likely to provide trade signals at the wrong time, or not provide a trade signal at the right time. If you use an indicator, study the math underneath it. That way you can work out the vulnerabilities. Also, don’t just look at the times the indicator told you do something and you won or lost, also look at times the indicator failed to warn you about getting into a trade or getting out of one.

Another drawback of indicators is that typically they’re just showing what is happening on the price chart, but in a different visual way. Price action traders feel indicators are redundant, and not required, because they can only provide information that price (and volume) charts are providing anyway. Since indicators are calculated based on price (or volume, or both), they tend to lag behind what the price is doing.

Happy Trading

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (01st February 2021 – 05th February 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar initially fell during the course of the week but has turned around to show signs of strength again. The Australian currency was weighed by a sour sentiment that sent equities down. The poor sentiment was partially triggered by soft data indicating slow economic progress within the pandemic scenario, but also by an equities scandal that took by storm financial markets. Also On Wednesday, the U.S. Fed left the interest rate unchanged and stated that it would proceed with asset purchases at the current pace. The Fed’s commentary did not have a major impact on the market, and traders remained focused on selling riskier assets on fears about the continued negative impact of the second wave of the virus.

US HPI m/m & CB Consumer Confidence Index on 26th January favored bullish trend and Australia CPI q/q & NAB Business Confidence on 27th January, Australia Import Price Index quarterly report on 28th January and US Core PCE Price Index on 29th January favored bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Feb 01, RBA Interest Rate Decision at Feb 02, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Feb 03, RBA Governor Lowe Speech, US Initial Jobless Claims at Feb 04, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Feb 05.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.24% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7764 and low at 0.7592 showed a movement of 172 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.7569 may open a clean path towards 0.7495 and may take a way down to 0.7397. Should 0.7741 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7838 and 0.7913 respectively. In H4 chart bearish shark pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7644 target at 0.7505 and stop loss at 0.7746

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy:  0.7746 target at 0.7912 and stop loss at 0.7644

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (01st February 2021 – 05th February 2021)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar has rallied significantly during the course of the week to reach towards 105 level. Demand for the greenback on risk-aversion boosted the pair, which held on to gains as Wall Street found they way up following a sell-off at the opening, trimming part of their intraday losses, although it fell to fresh lows with a dovish Fed.  In the meantime, Japan published the final version of its November Leading Economic Index, which resulted in 96.4, below the expected 96.6. The Coincident Index for the same month resulted at 89, contracting from 89.4, these news also was a favor for the greenback.

US Chicago Fed National Activity Index on 25th January and US Durable Goods Orders on 27th January created downtrend movement of the pair whereas Japan BoJ Trimmed Mean Core CPI on 26th January and Japan Coincident Index & Leading Index on 27th January created uptrend movement of the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoJ Monetary Base yearly report, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Feb 01, Japan Markit Services PMIUS ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Feb 03, US Initial Jobless Claims at Feb 04, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Feb 05.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.82% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 104.94 and low at 103.56 showed a movement of 139 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 105.22 may open a clean path towards 105.77 and may take a way up to 106.61. Should 103.84 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 103.00 and 102.45 respectively. In H4 chart symmetrical triangle breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bullish spinning top formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 104.66 target at 105.67 and stop loss at 103.79

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell:  103.79 target at 102.75 and stop loss at 104.66