XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (01st February 2021 – 05th February 2021)

Fundamental view:

After gaining more than 1% in the previous week, the XAU/USD pair struggled to preserve its bullish momentum and edged lower during the first half of the week and showed upward movement in the end day of the week. U.S. Dollar held steady, taking some of bullion’s allure kept it on track for its worst January in a decade.

The first half of the week was fueled by weakness in the equity markets as an ongoing retail versus hedge fund battle and doubts over European vaccine supply hurt global stocks. Meanwhile, new trial results from Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine disappointed some investors, weighing on the broader market.              

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ISM Manufacturing PMI at Feb 01, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Feb 03, Initial Jobless Claims at Feb 04, and Nonfarm Payrolls at Feb 05 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.03% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1875.6 and low at 1831.4 showed a movement of 442 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bullish trend.  The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1871.6 may open a clean path towards 1895.8 and may take a way up to 1915.9. Should 1827.4 prove to be unreliable support, the XAUUSD may sink downwards 1807.2 and 1783.1 respectively. In H4 chart bullish crab pattern favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted three white soldiers formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy: 1841.7 target at 1880.8 and stop loss at 1818.9

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell:  1818.9 target at 1784.1 and stop loss at 1841.7

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (01st February 2021 – 05th February 2021)

Fundamental view:

The British pound initially fell during the course of the week but then turned around to show signs of strength. The US currency has been unable to continue January’s modest improvement and faces a test in the week ahead with payrolls on February 5. The UK employment picture, better than expected despite the pandemic provided the pound with some additional support in a week with little data. Brexit did not impact much the trend.

US Durable Goods Orders excl. Defense monthly report on 27th January and  US New Home Sales on 28th January favored downtrend whereas US Chicago Fed National Activity Index on 25th January and US CB Consumer Confidence Index on 26th January favored uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Feb 01, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Feb 03, BoE Interest Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims at Feb 04, BoE Governor Bailey Speech, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Feb 05.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.09% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3759 and low at 1.3610 showed a movement of 149 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.3620 may open a clean path towards 1.3540 and may take a way down to 1.3471. Should 1.3769 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3838 and 1.3918 respectively. In H4 chart, if breakout of the head and shoulders neckline then bearish expectation is favored. Also to be noted bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 1.3707 target at 1.3500 and stop loss at 1.3774

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy:  1.3774 target at 1.3917 and stop loss at 1.3707

BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (01st February 2021 – 05th February 2021)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin showed a mixed trend during the past week closing with a positive node. The Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill, 2021, intends to ban all the private cryptocurrencies in India, but will also provide a framework to create the official digital currency issued by the Reserve Bank of India. The bill will basically ban all cryptocurrencies except the official one. There will; however, be some exceptions in order to ‘promote the underlying technology of cryptocurrencies and its uses’ according to the Lok Sabha Bulletin.

Issued on 25th Jan, RBI booklet on payment systems also showed that the central bank is exploring whether to issue a digital version of the rupee. “Private digital currencies have gained popularity in recent years,” the central bank booklet said.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ISM Manufacturing PMI at Feb 01, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Feb 03, Initial Jobless Claims at Feb 04, and Nonfarm Payrolls at Feb 05 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 2.00% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 38566.9 and low at 29168.4 showed a movement of 9388 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 38907.5 may open a clean path towards 43296.0 and may take a way up to 48035.0. Should 29258.0 prove to be unreliable support, the BTCUSD may sink downwards 24519.0 and 19869.5 respectively.  In H4 chart rounding bottom pattern formation favors prospects of a bullish trend. Bullish engulfing pattern constructs a bullish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Buy: 34100.4 target at 43295.5 and stop loss at 29253.8

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 29253.8 target at 19870.6 and stop loss at 34100.4

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (01st February 2021 – 05th February 2021)

Fundamental view:

The EUR/USD pair has fallen during the week but finished it above the 1.2100 range. The greenback appreciated on risk aversion generated by turmoil in equities markets. Traders looked beyond US first-tier data, instead focused on the individuals; investors craze that stole headlines these days but on the other hand, US data was mostly upbeat. 

US HPI on 26th January and Europe Unemployment Rate on 28Th January created bullish trend for the pair whereas Europe Ifo Business Climate on 25th January and Europe Jobseekers on 27th January created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Feb 01, Europe GDP quarterly report at Feb 02, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Feb 03, Europe Retail Sales monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Feb 04, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Feb 05.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.05% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2183 and low at 1.2059 showed a movement of 124 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 1.2067 may open a clean path towards 1.2001 and may take a way down to 1.1943. Should 1.2191 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2249 and 1.2315 respectively. Chart formation of an Inverted Cup and Handle pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish harami formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.2130 target at 1.2002 and stop loss at 1.2196

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy:  1.2196 target at 1.2314 and stop loss at 1.2130