BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (7th March2022 – 11th March 2022)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin initially traded high but later fell against the US dollar during the trading course of the week, However it managed to erase some of its previous week losses. War is the main market driver of the financial market now. Leaders from all the West’s nations have asked President Vladimir Putin to put a halt to the war, but of no use. On Thursday, Putin said that he aims to reach its goals and will continue no matter what. While Putin agreed on the creation of safe corridors to evacuate civilians, he persisted in bombing Ukrainian cities.

Bitcoin bounce back in this week can be due to crypto currencies are seen as digital assets that are safe haven — and emerged as a potential vehicle for getting around sanctions — amid the intensifying war between Russia and Ukraine.

Analysts watching the market say the stunning breakthrough can be ascribed to the idea that cryptocurrencies could act as a type of refuge as the war in Ukraine intensifies. Its appeal lies with the fact, the argument goes, that cryptocurrencies are detached from governmental control and therefore not beholden to any of their actions. 

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are JOLTS Job Openings, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, WASDE Report at Mar 09, Initial Jobless Claims, Federal Budget Balance at Mar 10 and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Mar 11.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 11.48% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 45294.1 and low at 37365.2 showed a movement of 7929 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bearish trend. The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. Should 35786.0 proves to be unreliable support then the pair may fall further to 32611.1 and 27857.1 respectively whereas a solid breakout above 43714.9 will open a clear path upward to 48468.9 and then will further raise up to 51643.8. In H4 chart rounding top pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing pattern constructs a bearish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Sell: 39111.3 target at 32612.7 and stop loss at 43719.6

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 43719.6 target at 51642.8 and stop loss at 39111.3

XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (7th March2022 – 11th March 2022)

Fundamental view:

Gold edged higher against the US dollar during the trading course of the week and ended reaching its highest level since Nov 2020 at $1970. The War underpinned the demand of the safety haven precious asset. Leaders from all the West’s nations have asked President Vladimir Putin to put a halt to the war, but of no use. On Thursday, Putin said that he aims to reach its goals and will continue no matter what. while Putin agreed on the creation of safe corridors to evacuate civilians, he persisted in bombing Ukrainian cities. The yellow metal rallied on Friday after reports of Russia attacking the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant triggered another bout of flight to safety.

On the other hand, In the semi-annual testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services, Powell confirmed a 25 basis points rate hike would be appropriate in March. Additionally, Powell noted that they could consider the option of a 50 basis points rate hike later in the year. He also noted that there wouldn’t be any direct effects on the US economy from Russian sanctions but acknowledged that it was causing uncertainty on the growth outlook.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are JOLTS Job Openings, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, WASDE Report at Mar 09, Initial Jobless Claims, Federal Budget Balance at Mar 10 and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Mar 11.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.18% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1970.7 and low at 1890.6 showed a movement of 801 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1997.1 may open a clean path towards 2023.9 and may take a way up to 2077.2. Should 1917.0 prove to be unreliable support, the XAUUSD may sink downwards 1863.7 and 1836.9 respectively. In H4 chart symmetrical triangle breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted three outside up formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy: 1970.2 target at 2045.5 and stop loss at 1938.5

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 1938.5 target at 1864.7 and stop loss at 1970.2

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (7th March2022 – 11th March 2022)

Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar edged higher against its rival American dollar reaching a fresh 2022 high of 0.7379 this week. Aussie reaction was resilient to the war. Leaders from all the West’s nations have asked President Vladimir Putin to put a halt to the war, but of no use. On Thursday, Putin said that he aims to reach its goals and will continue no matter what. while Putin agreed on the creation of safe corridors to evacuate civilians, he persisted in bombing Ukrainian cities. It has impacted the financial markets adversely. The commodity linked currency was underpinned by the soaring raw material prices due to the war situation. And upbeat local data, which reflected a solid economic comeback, also favored the Aussie.

The country published the February TD Securities Inflation report on Monday, which printed at 3.5% YoY, which is much higher than the previous 2.8%. Moreover, Governor Philip Lowe and Co decided to maintain the cash rate at a record low of 0.1%.  Lowe said that “the global economy is continuing to recover from the pandemic. However, the war in Ukraine is a major new source of uncertainty,” another reason to wait before pulling the trigger. On the other side of the pound, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained his hawkish stance in testimony at the semi-annual monetary policy report, confirming a 25 bps rate hike next week while showing the Fed’s openness for a series of rate hikes over the year.

In this week, Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI on 1st March , Fed Chair Powell Testimony on 2nd and 3rd March created downtrend whereas Australia Retail Sales monthly report on 28th February, Australia GDP quarterly report on 2nd March and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on 3rd March created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are RBA Governor Lowe Speech, Australia NAB Business Confidence at Mar 08, US JOLTS Job Openings, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, US WASDE Report at Mar 09, RBA Governor Lowe Speech, US Initial Jobless Claims, Federal Budget Balance at Mar 10 and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Mar 11.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.31% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7380 and low at 0.7162 showed a movement of 218 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7443 may open a clean path towards 0.7520 and may take a way up to 0.7661. Should 0.7225 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may sink downwards 0.7084 and 0.7007 respectively. In H4 chart Ascending Triangle breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bullish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy: 0.7365 target at 0.7547 and stop loss at 0.7220

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 0.7220 target at 0.7008 and stop loss at 0.7365

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (7th March2022 – 11th March 2022)

Fundamental view:

USD/JPY has a constrained reaction to the war. Leaders from all the West’s nations have asked President Vladimir Putin to put a halt to the war, but of no use. On Thursday, Putin said that he aims to reach its goals and will continue no matter what. while Putin agreed on the creation of safe corridors to evacuate civilians, he persisted in bombing Ukrainian cities.  

The US dollar and American assets particularly the Treasuries is the global choice in times of trouble.  However, the US dollar is not alone a safe haven asset.  But also, Japan’s advanced economy, sophisticated financial system and social and political stability, have long being a attractive asset as a safety one from the Asian markets. It is worth noting that the Global crude oil prices are about 20% higher since the Russian attack on Ukraine. As long as the Ukraine war continues the USD/JPY will be pinned between the safety aspects of its components.

In this week, Japan Capital Spending yearly report on 2nd March, Fed Chair Powell Testimony on 2nd and 3rd March and US Nonfarm Payrolls on 4th March favored uptrend whereas MNI Chicago Business Barometer on 28th February and  US Initial Jobless Claims on 1st March favored downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Japan GDP quarterly report at Mar 08, BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index monthly report, US JOLTS Job Openings, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, US WASDE Report at Mar 09, US Initial Jobless Claims, Federal Budget Balance at Mar 10, Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Mar 11.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.04% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 115.80 and low at 114.65 showed a movement of 115 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout above 115.50 may open a clean path towards 116.22 and may take a way up to 116.65. Should 114.35 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 113.92 and 113.20 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of bullish butterfly pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a hammer formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 114.81 target at 115.95 and stop loss at 114.30

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 114.30 target at 113.61 and stop loss at 114.81