XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (30th November 2020 – 4th December 2020)

Fundamental view:

Gold is down for the third week in a row but it does not mean that the bull market is over, Some analysts are beginning to reverse their expectations of $2,000 gold by the end of the year. Analysts remain certain that the macro environment is still very supportive of higher gold; some are starting to postpone expectations of new record high prices until next year.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are OPEC Meetings at Nov 30, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Dec 01, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at Dec 02, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Dec 03, and Nonfarm Payrolls at Dec 04 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.21% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1876.1 and low at 1774.3 showed a movement of 1018 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bullish trend.  The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1850.3 may open a clean path towards 1914.1 and may take a way up to 1952.1. Should 1748.5 prove to be unreliable support, the XAUUSD may sink downwards 1710.4 and 1646.6 respectively. In H4 chart three drives pattern formation favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted bullish spinning top formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy: 1781.9 target at 1895.7 and stop loss at 1731.8

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell:  1731.8 target at 1647.5 and stop loss at 1781.9

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (30th November 2020 – 4th December 2020)

Fundamental view:

The British pound initially pulled back during the course of the week only to shoot higher and reach towards the 1.34 level. An exit from the pandemic is more powerful than a Brexit deal – at least in unleashing late November’s rally. EU-UK negotiations remain significant, but also, the calendar is making a welcome comeback, with a full slate of US economic indicators. 

US Flash Manufacturing PMI on 23rd Aug created bearish trend for the pair whereas Britain Flash Manufacturing PMI on 23rd Aug and Britain CBI Realized Sales on 24th Aug created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are OPEC Meetings at Nov 30, UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Dec 01, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at Dec 02, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Dec 03, UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Dec 04. 

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.65% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3398 and low at 1.3263 showed a movement of 135 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout above 1.3381 may open a clean path towards 1.3456 and may take a way up to 1.3515. Should 1.3247 prove to be unreliable support, the GBPUSD may sink downwards 1.3188 and 1.3113 respectively. Chart formation of bullish gartley pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bullish trend. Spinning top pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.

Preference
Buy:  1.3316 target at 1.3455 and stop loss at 1.3242

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 1.3242 target at 1.3115 and stop loss at 1.3316

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (30th November 2020 – 4th December 2020)

Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar is at its highest since September 1 against its American rival and not far from the 2020 high of 0.7413. The AUD advantaged the greenback as the investors dumped the latter in benefit of high-yielding assets. US equities rallied to record highs after US President Donald Trump agreed to begin the transition with President-elect Joe Biden´s staff, also after upbeat US Markit PMIs. However, enthusiasm faded as the week went by,  as other macroeconomic data failed to impress, while corona virus concerns arose. And hence the pair showed a bullish trend in the past week.

Australia Construction Work Done on 25th August ad Australia Private Capital Expenditure in 26th August created downtrend whereas US Flash Manufacturing PMI on 23rd August and US Unemployment Claims on 25th August created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are OPEC Meetings at Nov 30, RBA Interest Rate Decision, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Dec 01, Australia GDP quarterly report, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at Dec 02, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Dec 03, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Dec 04.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.80% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7399 and low at 0.7265 showed a movement of 134 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7437 may open a clean path towards 0.7485 and may take a way up to 0.7571. Should 0.7303 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may sink downwards 0.7217 and 0.7170 respectively. In H4 chart rounding bottom pattern formation favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bullish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy:  0.7376 target at 0.7484 and stop loss at 0.7301

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 0.7301 target at 0.7171 and stop loss at 0.7376

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (30th November 2020 – 4th December 2020)

Fundamental view:

The EUR/USD pair reached 1.1949 this week, a fresh 2-month high, retaining most of its gains heading into the weekend. The dollar did not earn speculative interest. It was an intense week, even though the FX price action didn’t reflect it. Among other things, US President Donald Trump has agreed to begin a formal transition with President-elect Joe Biden´s staff to take office. At the same time, he vowed to keep contesting the election result. 

Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic is out of control in all US states. Hospitalizations in the country have been hitting records for seventeen days in-a-row, currently at 90K. As of Friday, the country has a sad record of having reported roughly 270K deaths.

Europe Flash Services PMI & US Flash Manufacturing PMI on 23rd Aug and Europe German GfK Consumer Climate on 26th Aug created bearish trend for the pair whereas Europe German Final GDP quarterly report on 24th Aug and  Europe German Import Prices m/m & French Consumer Spending on 27th Aug created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are OPEC Meetings at Nov 30, Euro Economic and Financial Affairs Council Meeting, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Dec 01, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at Dec 02, Euro Retail Sales monthly report, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Dec 03, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Dec 04.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.58% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1962 and low at 1.1800 showed a movement of 162 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.1979 may open a clean path towards 1.2052 and may take a way up to 1.2141. Should 1.1816 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1727 and 1.1654 respectively. Chart formation of an ascending triangle pattern breakout in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Bullish Hammer formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.

Preference
Buy:  1.1947 target at 1.2091 and stop loss at 1.1874

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 1.1874 target at 1.1748 and stop loss at 1.1947