BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (16th November 2020 – 20th November 2020)

Fundamental view:

The pioneer digital currency hit a new multi-year high .Currently, Bitcoin is on the way to finish the sixth consecutive week in a green zone, which is the longest bullish streak since March. Bitcoin’s market share jumped to 65%, while its capitalization exceeded $300 billion.

Notably, according to the research performed by CryptoVoices, Bitcoin’s market value has already surpassed the monetary base of several economies, including Russia, Australia, Sweden and Poland. This measure includes physical currency and bank reserves held by the local central banks.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index at Nov 16, Retail Sales monthly report at Nov 17, Building Permits, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change Nov 18, Initial Jobless Claims at Nov 19 for US, and G20 Meetings at Nov 20. 

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 3.27% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 16477.1 and low at 14786.5 showed a movement of 1690 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 16847.7 may open a clean path towards 17507.7 and may take a way up to 18538.3. Should 15157.1 prove to be unreliable support, the BTCUSD may sink downwards 14126.5 and 13466.4 respectively. In H4 chart ascending scallop pattern formation favors prospects of a bullish trend. Hammer pattern constructs a bullish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Buy: 16185.3 target at 17505.5 and stop loss at 15152.7

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 15152.7 target at 13467.9 and stop loss at 16185.3

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (16th November 2020 – 20th November 2020)

Fundamental view:

The USD/Yen closed higher last week, but the gains were skewed by last Monday’s huge rally in reaction to the news that Pfizer had developed a COVID-19 vaccine with 90% efficiency. After that initial thrust, the Forex pair spent most of the week trading sideways to lower.

The dollar headed for its best week against the Japanese Yen since March as COVID-19 vaccine news lured investors out of the Japanese safe haven, though riskier currencies have made little headway as the pandemic worsens in Europe and the United States.

US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism on 10th November and Japan Tertiary Industry Activity on 12th November created bearish atmosphere for the pair whereas Japan M2 Money Stock yearly report on 11th November created a bullish atmosphere.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoJ Board Member Masai Speech, NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index at Nov 16, US Retail Sales monthly report at Nov 17, US Building Permits at Nov 18, Japan CPI yearly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Nov 19, and G20 Meetings at Nov 20.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.31% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 105.67 and low at 103.19 showed a movement of 249 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 105.81 may open a clean path towards 106.99 and may take a way up to 108.30. Should 103.33 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 102.01 and 100.84 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of ABCD pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bullish engulfing formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 104.65 target at 106.98 and stop loss at 103.27

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell:  103.27 target at 100.85 and stop loss at 104.65

XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (16th November 2020 – 20th November 2020)

Fundamental view:

Gold futures settled sharply lower last week with most of the losses taking place in one session, while the rest of the week, the market attempted to claw back these losses. Pfizer and BioNTech reported a 90% efficacy rate in their COVID-19 vaccine candidate. While the results are preliminary, the outcome seems promising not only for these firms – but also for three other efforts using the mRNA approach.

Gold has been rising on hopes for additional fiscal stimulus, yet with prospects of returning back to normal, the urge for additional funds is weaker.              

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index at Nov 16, Retail Sales monthly report at Nov 17, Building Permits, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change Nov 18, Initial Jobless Claims at Nov 19 for US, and G20 Meetings at Nov 20. 

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.27% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1965.5 and low at 1850.5 showed a movement of 115 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bullish trend.  The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1950.5 may open a clean path towards 2015.6 and may take a way up to 2065.6. Should 1835.5 prove to be unreliable support, the XAUUSD may sink downwards 1785.4 and 1720.4 respectively. In H4 chart diamond pattern breakout favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted three white soldiers formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy: 1890.5 target at 2005.1 and stop loss at 1830.9

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell:  1830.9 target at 1725.5 and stop loss at 1890.5

Investors fear with the second wave of covid -19

USD/JPY is feeling the pull of gravity alongside corona virus-led ron in the equity and bond markets. The risk appetite has weakened as the second wave of the corona virus is accelerating in the US. Investors fear the authorities may respond by imposing the economically-painful lockdown restrictions.

However investors could be pricing out the optimism factored in following the US drugmaker Pfizer’s announcement of the corona virus vaccine’s positive results. On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that while the progress on the vaccine front is welcome news, it does not nullify near-term economic risks from rising virus cases.

Mr. Powell’s comments also showed the need for additional US fiscal stimulus. With the split Congress, a massive spending program looks unlikely. That does not imply dollar strength as the Federal Reserve has the ability and is willing to do the heavy lifting. 

Former Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei expressed his view on the likely US-China trade relationship on Biden’s presidency. The key notes of his views are “Even if Biden is president, US-China trade frictions won’t necessarily be eased. ““Financial institutions should be determined to deleverage debt levels in an orderly manner, prevent debt-fuelled recovery.”

On the other hand, by Thursday, Japan confirmed over 1,600 new covid cases, a record daily high since the outbreak of the virus early this year, as per Kyodo news. Even so, Prime Minister (PM) Yoshihide Suga rejects the chatters suggesting a state of emergency while keeping local restrictions on the gatherings and activities.

USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 104.97 (S1), 104.81 (S2), 104.56 (S3).

Resistance: 105.38 (R1), 105.63 (R2), 105.79 (R3).

Amidst all the catalysts creating pressure on the greenback, we expect a bearish trend for USD/JPY.