EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (9th November 2020 – 13th November 2020)

Fundamental view:

The Euro has exploded to the upside reaching towards the 1.19 level, last week.  There are several resistances at this level like the fact that the US elections are still causing issues, and of course and lockdowns in the European Union. Further compounding this noise is the fact that the European Central Bank is likely to see the need to go nuclear with some type of stimulus as well.

Europe Spanish Manufacturing PMI & Final Manufacturing PMI on 2nd November, US Wards Total Vehicle Sales on 3rd November and US Unemployment Claims on 5th November created bullish trend for the pair whereas US Final Services PMI on 4th November created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Euro Unemployment Rate, US JOLTS Job Openings at Nov 10, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Fed Governor Quarles Speech at Nov 11, US Initial Jobless Claims at Nov 12, Euro GDP quarterly report and US PPI monthly report at Nov 13.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.26% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1.1891 and low at 1.1602 showed a movement of 289 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.1979 may open a clean path towards 1.2079 and may take a way up to 1.2267. Should 1.1691 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1503 and 1.1403 respectively. Chart formation of a rounding bottom in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Hammer formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.

Preference
Buy:  1.1885 target at 1.2078 and stop loss at 1.1696

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 1.1696 target at 1.1405 and stop loss at 1.1885

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (9th November 2020 – 13th November 2020)

Fundamental view:

The British pound has initially pulled back just a bit during the trading sessions that make up the week, only to turn around and sliced through the 1.30 level. The question of who will be the next president remains in the front –  The question remains open after long days of vote counting. However, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading against incumbent President Donald Trump in critical swing states – Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Britain Final Manufacturing PMI on 2nd November, US Wards Total Vehicle Sales on 3rd November and US Unemployment Claims on 5th November created uptrend for the pair whereas US ISM Manufacturing PMI on 2nd November and US Unemployment Rate & Consumer Credit monthly report creates bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoE Governor Bailey Speech at Nov 09, US JOLTS Job Openings at Nov 10, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Fed Governor Quarles Speech at Nov 11, UK GDP quarterly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Nov 12, and US PPI monthly report at Nov 13.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.75% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3177 and low at 1.2854 showed a movement of 323 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.3273 may open a clean path towards 1.3386 and may take a way up to 1.3596. Should 1.2950 prove to be unreliable support, the GBPUSD may sink downwards 1.2741 and 1.2627 respectively. Chart formation of Inverse head and shoulders pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bullish trend. Bullish engulfing pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.

Preference
Buy:  1.3112 target at 1.3415 and stop loss at 1.2945

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 1.2945 target at 1.2637 and stop loss at 1.3112

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (9th November 2020 – 13th November 2020)

Fundamental view:

During the last week there was US presidential elections, a FOMC meeting, and of course the Non-Farm Payroll numbers created negativity for the pair and the pair fell to 103 levels. Japan Final Manufacturing PMI on 2nd November and US Wards Total Vehicle Sales on 3rd November created a bearish trend for the pair whereas US ISM Manufacturing PMI on 2nd November and US Final Services PMI on 4th November created bearish trend for the pair.

Stimulus is coming out of the United States, and the election mess is still in the air to make or break the market trend.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoJ Summary of Opinions at Nov 09, US JOLTS Job Openings at Nov 10, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Fed Governor Quarles Speech at Nov 11, BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Nov 12, and US PPI monthly report at Nov 13.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.28% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 105.34 and low at 103.17 showed a movement of 217 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 102.54 may open a clean path towards 101.77 and may take a way down to 100.38. Should 104.71 prove to be unreliable resistance, the USDJPY may raise upwards 106.11 and 106.88 respectively.  Chart formation of Inverse bearish A-shark pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bearish spinning top formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Sell:  103.43 target at 101.78 and stop loss at 104.75

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 104.75 target at 106.85 and stop loss at 103.43

US election probes the Gold bull

Gold has been increased in its recent advance to the $1,950 level as market volatility slows down and the US election nerves settle into a foregone conclusion of a Democratic Party victory.  The yellow metal recently eased after US election updates suggest President Donald Trump’s lead in Pennsylvanian voting count.

Earlier in Asia, news from Georgia and Arizona marked Joe Biden as the front-runner for the US presidency while keeping his 260+ electoral votes, versus 270 required.

Although fears of a hung decision over the blue wave in America probe the US dollar bears, optimism surrounding further easy money, be it from the central banks or governments, enthuses the global risk sentiment.

As a result, equities and commodities cheered the US dollar’s downside during Thursday before portraying a consolidation so far today. That said, S&P 500 Futures print 0.60% intraday losses.

Further, the Fed’s willingness to boost bond-buying while pushing for a fiscal stimulus fueled further gains in the inflation-hedge, gold.

“Fed Chairman Powell communicated that officials ‘had a full discussion of the options around quantitative easing,’ adding, ‘we understand the ways in which we can adjust the parameters of it to deliver more accommodation if it turns out to be appropriate.’ We expect the case for more accommodation to build as employment growth, and the economy broadly slows in the months ahead.”

XAU/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 1917.0 (S1), 1884.3 (S2), 1866.4 (S3).

Resistance: 1967.6 (R1), 1985.5 (R2), 2018.2 (R3).

All the above catalysts favors yellow metal over dollar and we expect a bullish trend for XAU/USD.