XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (28th February 2022 – 4th March 2022)

Fundamental view:

Gold traded back and forth against the US dollar during the course of the week. The headlines on the Russia – Ukraine crisis made the gold to fluctuate. It reached to its highest level since September 2020 at $1,974 on Thursday, and later it declined below $1,900 in the early American session on Friday and closed with snapping a three-week winning streak. Initially, the hope of diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine crisis made it difficult for gold to build on the previous week gain and it started to gain by Wednesday when Russia started piling up troops near the Ukrainian border and it soared on Thursday , When Russia announced that it had launched a “special military operation” against Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the aim was to demilitarize Ukraine.

Whereas on Friday, reports of Russian forces moving toward the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv with the intention of overthrowing the government forced markets to a risk off mood. The yellow metal spent the first half of the day in a relatively tight range above $1,900. In the early American session, Later reports of Russia willing to send a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine revived optimism for a diplomatic end to war. XAU/USD came under bearish pressure on this development. Ukraine developments will be the major catalyst in the market next week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ISM Manufacturing PMI at Mar 01, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Mar 02, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Mar 03 and Nonfarm Payrolls at Mar 04 for US.  
XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 3.64% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1974.3 and low at 1877.7 showed a movement of 966 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bearish trend. The Instrument is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. Should 1852.9 proves to be unreliable support then the pair may fall further to 1817.0 and 1756.3 respectively whereas a solid breakout above 1949.5 will open a clear path upward to 2010.2 and then will further raise up to 2046.1. In H4 chart Ascending Broadening Wedge breakout downside favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted shooting star formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 1888.8 target at 1825.5 and stop loss at 1920.5

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1920.5 target at 1974.8 and stop loss at 1888.8

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (28th February 2022 – 4th March 2022)

Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar advanced against American dollar for a fourth consecutive week, trading at around 0.7220 as the week ended .The risk off market mood amid geopolitical jitters made the commodity-linked currency to shrugge off to 0.7283, its highest since mid-January. The market sentiment fluctuated alongside headlines related to the Ukraine-Russia crisis throughout the week. Russia invaded the Ukraine, claiming that Kyiv allying with NATO represents a security concern. Moscow’s military attack took over Chernobyl and reached the capital on Friday when Russia expressed willingness to send a delegation and discuss the possibility of Ukraine becoming neutral. Further geopolitical developments will be the major catalyst in the market.

In this week, Australia Construction Work Done quarterly report on 23rd February and US GDP quarterly report on 24th February favored downtrend whereas Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI on 21st February and CB Consumer Confidence Index on 22nd February favored uptrend of the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Australia Retail Sales monthly report at Feb 28, RBA Interest Rate Decision, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Mar 01, Australia GDP quarterly report, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Mar 02, Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Mar 03 and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Mar 04.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.78% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7283 and low at 0.7094 showed a movement of 189 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. Should 0.7116 proves to be unreliable support then the pair may fall further to 0.7010 and 0.6927 respectively whereas a solid breakout above 0.7305 will open a clear path upward to 0.7388 and then will further raise up to 0.7494. In H4 chart rising wedge pattern breakout downside favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted dark cloud pattern formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7195 target at 0.7011 and stop loss at 0.7310

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7310 target at 0.7493 and stop loss at 0.7195

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (28th February 2022 – 4th March 2022)

Fundamental view:

US Dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen during the trading course of the week. The geopolitical tension is the major catalyst in driving the pair, meanwhile hawkish Fed policymakers also favored the USD bulls. The maket came under strong risk off mood on Thursday due to Russia invasion on Ukraine, launching a massive military attack. According to US intelligence, the main goal is to depose Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and impose a leader favorable to the Russian regime. Moscow’s military attack took over Chernobyl and reached the capital on Friday when Russia expressed willingness to send a delegation and discuss the possibility of Ukraine becoming neutral. This somewhat eased the Market However, Ukrainian developments are the determinant factors for global markets.

Japanese economic data was mixed. Tokyo CPI in February was a bit stronger than forecast, though the core index was weaker. The Hawkish comment from Atlanta Fed President and FOMC member Raphael Bostic and Richmond Fed President, as well as an FOMC member, Thomas Barkin underpinned the bullish move of the US dollar Even though Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that she doesn’t think raising interest rates by 50 bps in March is compelling. Meanwhile, Market is waiting to taking clues from BOE speech next week.

In this week, Japan Markit Manufacturing PMI on 21st February and US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report on 25th February created bullish outlook whereas US CB Consumer Confidence Index on 22nd February and Tokyo CPI yearly report on 25th February created bearish outlook for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Japan Markit Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Mar 01, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Mar 02, Japan Unemployment Rate, Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Mar 03 and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Mar 04.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.09% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 115.76 and low at 114.41 showed a movement of 135 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 116.08 may open a clean path towards 116.60 and may take a way up to 117.43. Should 114.73 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 113.90 and 113.38 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of descending channel pattern breakout upside indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a three inside up pattern formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 115.52 target at 116.59 and stop loss at 114.68

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 114.68 target at 113.69 and stop loss at 115.52

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (28th February 2022 – 4th March 2022)

Fundamental view:

Pound had a drop against greenback after three-week bullish trend amid a geopolitical storm in Ukraine. Hawkish Bank of England (BOE) expectations due to hotter UK inflation favored the pound to maintain the bullish trend in the first three weeks of February but it gave up towards the month end, as Russia invaded Ukraine. According to US intelligence, the main goal is to depose Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and impose a leader favorable to the Russian regime. Hawkish speech from Fed policymakers also favored the US dollar and weighed on the pound. The Hawkish comment from Atlanta Fed President and FOMC member Raphael Bostic and Richmond Fed President, as well as an FOMC member, Thomas Barkin underpinned the bullish move of the US dollar Even though Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that she doesn’t think raising interest rates by 50 bps in March is compelling. Meanwhile, Market is waiting to taking clues from BOE speech next week.

In this week, UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI on 21st February,  US Markit Manufacturing PMI on 22nd February and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 24th February framed bullish trend whereas Fed Governor Bowman Speech on 21st February and US GDP quarterly report on 24th February framed bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Mar 01, BoE Deputy Governor Financial Stability Cunliffe Speech, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Fed Chair Powell Testimony at Mar 02, Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Mar 03 and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Mar 04.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.03% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3638 and low at 1.3272 showed a movement of 366 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. Should 1.3238 proves to be unreliable support then the pair may fall further to 1.3072 and 1.2872 respectively whereas a solid breakout above 1.3604 will open a clear path upward to 1.3804 and then will further raise up to 1.3970. Chart formation of descending scallop pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.3401 target at 1.3073 and stop loss at 1.3609

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.3609 target at 1.3965 and stop loss at 1.3401