EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (5th October 2020 – 9th October 2020)

Fundamental view:

The Euro has rallied during the course of the week to slam into the previous uptrend line but have given back quite a bit of the gains. The main market motor these days was the risk-related sentiment, centred around a US stimulus bill and a post-Brexit trade deal. The cherry on the cake was the announcement this Friday that US President Donald Trump and wife Melania contracted COVID-19.

 US CB Consumer Confidence on 29th Sept, US Final GDP quarterly report on 30th Sept favored downtrend for the pair whereas Europe German Import Prices monthly report on 30th Sept, Europe Italian Monthly Unemployment on 1st Oct favored uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Oct 05 , Euro group Meeting, Fed Chair Powell Speech at Oct 06, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 07,  ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and US Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 08.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.86% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1769 and low at 1.1615 showed a movement of 154 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1631 may open a clean path towards 1.1546 and may take a way down to 1.1476. Should 1.1785 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1855 and 1.1940 respectively. Chart formation of a bearish gartley pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Spinning top formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.1720 target at 1.1567 and stop loss at 1.1791

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy:  1.1791 target at 1.1939 and stop loss at 1.1720

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (5th October 2020 – 9th October 2020)

Fundamental view:

Optimism on Brexit with pessimism on fiscal talks – or the other way around – is what moved GBP/USD, and will likely continue moving forward. PM Johnson’s critical weekend phone call, the Fed minutes, UK GDP, and US politics are all eyed.

Net Lending to Individuals monthly report on 29th Sept, Britain BRC Shop Price Index yearly report on 30th Sept created a bearish trend whereas Revised Business Investment quarterly report on 30th Sept, Non-Farm Employment Change on 2nd Oct created a bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Oct 05, Fed Chair Powell Speech at Oct 06, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 07, US Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 08, UK Manufacturing Production, and UK GDP monthly report at Oct 09.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.09% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2978 and low at 1.2751 showed a movement of 227 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.2799 may open a clean path towards 1.2661 and may take a way down to 1.2572. Should 1.3027 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3116 and 1.3254 respectively. In H4 chart, if breakout of the expending triangle is to the downside then bearish expectation is favored. Also to be noted bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 1.2890 target at 1.2665 and stop loss at 1.3032

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy:  1.3032 target at 1.3253 and stop loss at 1.2890

BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (5th October 2020 – 9th October 2020)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneer cryptocurrency, dropped last week reaching a level of $1500 this week.

The US authorities filed several charges against the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX and its top executives, including Arthur Hayes. In a joined statement, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) accused the team of running an unregistered trading platform and violating the Bank Secrecy Act. The experts warn that the charges are severe and may result in jail time for all the people involved, provided that the court sides with the regulators. This news has put weigh on the Bitcoin.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Oct 05, JOLTS Job Openings, Fed Chair Powell Speech at Oct 06, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 07, and Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 08 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.38% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 10932.6 and low at 10363.6 showed a movement of 569 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bearish trend. The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 10288.8 may open a clean path towards 10041.7 and may take a way down to 9719.8. Should 10857.8 prove to be unreliable resistance, the BTCUSD may raise upwards 11179.7 and 11426.8 respectively. In H4 chart bearish bat pattern formation favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish harami pattern constructs a bearish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Sell: 10544.3 target at 10042.7 and stop loss at 10863.2

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 10863.2 target at 11425.7 and stop loss at 10544.3

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (5th October 2020 – 9th October 2020)

Fundamental view:

USD/JPY showed a mixed trend for the last week. Greenback lost its strength against Yen. The major news for this is the diagnosis of President Trump and First Lady Melania with COVID-19 on Friday.

Japan Tankan Manufacturing Index on 1st Oct and US Unemployment Rate on 2nd Oct favored uptrend for the pair whereas US Goods Trade Balance on 29th sept, Japan Prelim Industrial Production monthly report on 30th Sept and Consumer Confidence on 2nd Oct favored downtrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoJ Governor Kuroda Speech, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Oct 05, Fed Chair Powell Speech at Oct 06, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 07, Japan Household Spending yearly report, and US Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 08.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.0.10% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 105.80 and low at 104.94 showed a movement of 86 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 104.91 may open a clean path towards 104.49 and may take a way down to 104.05. Should 105.77 prove to be unreliable resistance, the USDJPY may raise upwards 106.22 and 106.63 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of Symmetrical triangle pattern breakout indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bearish trend Along with a bearish engulfing formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Sell:  105.40 target at 104.54 and stop loss at 105.82

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 105.82 target at 160.61 and stop loss at 105.40