XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (28th September 2020 – 2nd October 2020)

Fundamental view:

Gold bears are taking a hiatus amid the US dollar’s pullback. The yellow metal witnessed weakness against dollar in the last week. Most of the sell-off in the gold price is primarily down to the strength in the dollar index that we have seen the last week

Amidst the greenback gaining strength, the yellow metal will see a downtrend in the upcoming week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are CB Consumer Confidence Index at Sep 29, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, GDP quarterly report, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at 30 Sep, ISM Manufacturing PMI at Oct 01, and Nonfarm Payrolls at Oct 02 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.91% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1955.6 and low at 1848.7 showed a movement of 1069 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bearish trend.  The Instrument is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 1823.8 may open a clean path towards 1782.9 and may fall down to 1717.0. Should 1930.6 prove to be unreliable resistance, the XAUUSD may raise upwards to 1996.5 and 2037.5 respectively. In H4 chart the formation of the descending scallop favors the prospects of bearish trend. Also to be noted Bearish harami adds to the expectation of bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1869.7 target at 1783.9 and stop loss at 1935.8

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy:  1935.8 target at 2011.4 and stop loss at 1869.5

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (28th September 2020 – 2nd October 2020)

Fundamental view:

Sterling has lost all of its summer bounce and is threatening to break back into its immediate post-pandemic range. Several factors have withered the appeal of the UK currency but the primary cause has been the risk-avoidance resurgence of the US dollar as the continuing economic impact of COVID-19 makes the August and September sterling optimism outdated. CBI Realized Sales on 24th Sept and Britain GfK Consumer Confidence on 25th Sept favored uptrend for the pair whereas Britain CBI Industrial Order Expectations on 22nd Sept, US HPI monthly report on 23rd Sept and US New Home Sales on 24th Sept favored downtrend for the pair.

The return of limited economic closures in the UK from rising COVID-19 cases and the rancorous Brexit talks are the major domestic weights on the pound.  And we expect pound to be weak against Dollar in the upcoming week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Sep 29, UK GDP quarterly report, US GDP quarterly report at 30 Sep, UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Oct 01, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Oct 02.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.31% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2966 and low at 1.2675 showed a movement of 292 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.2623 may open a clean path towards 1.2503 and may take a way down to 1.2331. Should 1.2914 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3086 and 1.3205 respectively. Breakout of the pennant pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Shooting star pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.2757 target at 1.2505 and stop loss at 1.2919

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy:  1.2919 target at 1.3204 and stop loss at 1.2757

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (28th September 2020 – 2nd October 2020)

Fundamental view:

King Dollar won the battle in the last full trading week of September, with AUD/USD plummeting and nearing the 0.7000 threshold. Several factors combined to put the greenback back in its throne this week, including a speech from RBA’s Deputy Governor Guy Debelle. US Unemployment Claims on 24th Sept , US Core Durable Goods Orders on 25th Sept favored uptrend for the pair whereas US Richmond Manufacturing Index on 22nd sept and Flash Manufacturing PMI  on 23rd Sept favored downtrend for the pair

Aussie will find it difficult against the American rival in the upcoming week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Sep 29, Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI, US GDP quarterly report at 30 Sep, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Oct 01, Australia Retail Sales monthly report, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Oct 02.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.28% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7324 and low at 0.7005 showed a movement of 319 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 0.6916 may open a clean path towards 0.6801 and may take a way down to 0.6597. Should 0.7234 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7438 and 0.7553 respectively. In H4 chart bearish flag pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted Bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7041 target at 0.6802 and stop loss at 0.7239

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy:  0.7239 target at 0.7551 and stop loss at 0.7041

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (28th September 2020 – 2nd October 2020)

Fundamental view:

The Market has set its mind in the previous week and the greenback stands powerful against EUR. Federal hawkish Comments supported dollar whereas the second wave of virus Europe pressurizes EUR against USD. US Core Durable Goods Orders on 25th Sept showed bullish trend whereas US Richmond Manufacturing Index on 22nd Sept and Europe German GfK Consumer Climate on 23rd Sept and Europe M3 Money Supply yearly report on 25th Sept created bearish trend for the pair.

The main theme these days was risk-aversion amid record corona virus contagions in Europe. The Old Continent is in the middle of a second wave, with new restrictions announced in France, Spain and the UK. The pandemic continues to take its toll on economic progress. And we expect a bearish trend in the upcoming week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Sep 29, Europe Unemployment Rate, US GDP quarterly report at 30 Sep, EU Leaders Summit, US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Oct 01, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Oct 02.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.24% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1871 and low at 1.1612 showed a movement of 259 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout below 1.1537 may open a clean path towards 1.1445 and may take a way down to 1.1278. Should 1.1796 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1964 and 1.2056 respectively. Breakout of an ascending triangle in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Three black crows formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.1639 target at 1.1446 and stop loss at 1.1804

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy:  1.1804 target at 1.2055 and stop loss at 1.1639