XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (25th April 2022 – 29th April 2022)

Fundamental view:

Gold initially traded high but later dropped against its US dollar rival during the trading course of the week. Hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers boosted the USD, weighing on the yellow metal. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed might want to consider 75 basis points rate hikes and also reiterated that the policy rate needs to rise to 3.5% by the end of the year to tame inflation. While speaking at the IMF Spring Meetings on Thursday, FOMC Chairman Powell reiterated that they are planning to get interest rates “expeditiously” to neutral. Powell also said that 50 bps rate increases will be on the table moving forward. Speaking about the state of the US economy, Powell noted that the US labor market was still very tight and that the economy was very strong.

The risk- off market sentiment due to the lack of progress on the Russia-Ukraine diplomacy front and the Shanghai lockdown disturbing the supply chain which in turn would slow the economic progress failed to boosted the safe-haven precious metal – Gold this week.              

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, CB Consumer Confidence Index at Apr 26, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Apr 27, GDP quarterly report, Initial Jobless Claims at Apr 28, Employment Cost Index quarterly report and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Apr 29 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.85% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1998.3 and low at 1926.4 showed a movement of 719 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A solid breakout above 1977.3 may open a clean path towards 2023.7 and may take a way up to 2049.2. Should 1905.4 prove to be unreliable support, the XAUUSD may sink downwards 1879.9 and 1833.5 respectively. In H4 chart bullish butterfly pattern favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Hammer formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy: 1931.7 target at 1994.2 and stop loss at 1900.4

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 1900.4 target at 1835.6 and stop loss at 1931.7

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (25th April 2022 – 29th April 2022)

Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar had a bearish momentum against the American dollar during the trading course of the week. The hawkish Fed and the risk off market mood favored the US dollar. The Russia – Ukraine crisis and the coronavirus returning to China walloped the market sentiment. Market Participants has priced a 70% chance of double-dose Fed rate hikes in May and June after US inflation soared to a four-decade high of 8.5% in March. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made a case for a 75 bps rate hike if needed. Fed Jerome Powell endorsed front-loading rate hikes, confirming a 50 bps lift-off in May.

Meanwhile, The Reserve Bank of Australia has recently came in to the hiking arena, as in its latest monetary policy meeting, policymakers opened the door for a rate move. As of now, the central bank is expected to hike some 40 bps by June. Still, it is way behind the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to push rates towards the 2.75%-3% range by the end of the year, that is a another reason for the Aussie slide.

In this week, US Initial Jobless Claims on 21st April and Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on 22nd April underpinned bullish trend whereas US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 20th April, Fed powell speech on 21st April and Australia S&P Global Services PMI on 22nd April underpinned bearish trend for the quote.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Apr 26, RBA Weighted Median CPI quarterly report at Apr 27, US GDP quarterly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Apr 28, Australia  PPI quarterly report, US Employment Cost Index quarterly report and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Apr 29.   

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.48% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7457 and low at 0.7234 showed a movement of 223 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. Should 0.7161 proves to be unreliable support then the pair may fall further to 0.7086 and 0.6938 respectively whereas a solid breakout above 0.7384 will open a clear path upward to 0.7532 and then will further raise up to 0.7607. In H4 chart symmetrical triangle breakout downside favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7235 target at 0.7049 and stop loss at 0.7389

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7389 target at 0.7605 and stop loss at 0.7235

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (25th April 2022 – 29th April 2022)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen during the trading course of the week. The Fed- BoJ monetary policy divergence was the key catalyst in the uptrend of the quote. Hawkish comments from fed policymakers favored the US dollar. St Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the bank should not rule out 75 basis point increases. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave his commentary to the rate picture on Thursday. “I would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.” 

On the other hand, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda while speaking at the Columbia University Business School in New York on Friday had a more accommodative policy tone. “ The Bank should persistently continue with the current aggressive monetary easing toward achieving the price stability target of 2 percent in a stable manner,” he said in his prepared remarks. 

In this week, Building Permits on 19th April and  Japan Adjusted Trade Balance on 20th April boosted downtrend whereas Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index monthly report and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 20th April and Fed Powell speech on 21st April boosted uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Japan Unemployment Rate at Apr 25, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Apr 26, Japan Retail Sales monthly report Apr 27, BoJ Interest Rate Decision, US GDP quarterly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Apr 28, US Employment Cost Index quarterly report and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Apr 29. 

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 2.16% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 129.40 and low at 126.23 showed a movement of 317 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 129.83 may open a clean path towards 131.20 and may take a way up to 133.00. Should 126.66 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 124.86 and 123.49 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of bullish pennant pattern indicates continuation of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bullish harami formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 128.46 target at 131.19 and stop loss at 126.61

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 126.61 target at 123.59 and stop loss at 128.46

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (25th April 2022 – 29th April 2022)

Fundamental view:

The British pound dropped heavily against its US counterpart during this week. The risk off market mood and the Fed-BoE monetary policy divergence were the market movers of the week. A lack of progress on the Russia-Ukraine diplomacy front weighed on the investors sentiment favoring safe-haven dollar. Meanwhile hawkish fed also underpinned the bullish trend of USD. Market Participants has priced a 70% chance of double-dose Fed rate hikes in May and June after US inflation soared to a four-decade high of 8.5% in March. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made a case for a 75 bps rate hike if needed. Fed Jerome Powell endorsed front-loading rate hikes, confirming a 50 bps lift-off in May.

On the other hand, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey also spoke at an event on Thursday and expressed his concerns over a slowdown in UK economic growth. The monetary policy divergence between Fed and BOE also weighed on the cable.

In this week, US Building Permits on 19th April and US Initial Jobless claims on 21st April underpinned bullish trend whereas Fed Powell speech on 21st April and UK GfK Consumer Confidence and UK Retail Sales monthly report on 22nd April underpinned bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoE Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation Woods Speech, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Apr 26, UK Nationwide HPI yearly report at Apr 27, US GDP quarterly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Apr 28, US Employment Cost Index quarterly report and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Apr 29.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.43% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3090 and low at 1.2822 showed a movement of 268 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. Should 1.2741 proves to be unreliable support then the pair may fall further to 1.2648 and 1.2473 respectively whereas a solid breakout above 1.3009 will open a clear path upward to 1.3184 and then will further raise up to 1.3277. Chart formation of descending scallop pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Three Inside down pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.2835 target at 1.2591 and stop loss at 1.3014

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.3014 target at 1.3276 and stop loss at 1.2835