What is FUD and what it mean in Crypto?

FUD is Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (often spread on social media or mass media). FUD can make the price of a coin to fall without fundamentals and technical, rather on bad news that are spread on social media platforms. In many instances, the bad news isn’t substantiated or grounded in reality and finally it turns to be something silly like a popular person or a celebrity sharing their negative opinion, for instance calling Bitcoin a bubble. In short, The fear, uncertainty, and doubt-inducing idea being spread around media is known as FUD.

FUD, FOMO and HODL

FUD can be said as opposite of FOMO (fear of missing out). FOMO affects people on personal level , in that they don’t want to miss out on potential gains whereas FUD tend to more of a collective effect that spread like wildfire usually through social media.

Many people face FOMO when market is in uptrend and fall victim of FUD when market is down, FUD can spread rapidly. In simple terms, FUD means Fear and FOMO means greed.

Both of these are sometimes used by astute traders as contrarian indicators. They buy the asset at low prices when FUD spreads everywhere. When people experience FOMO, astute traders may sell at a high price.

“Hodl” word is also famous in the crypto world. The term HODL is interpreted as “hold on for dear life.” This use of this word came from an old Reddit post where someone posted a long rant about having trouble timing the market while misspelling the word “hold” several times. Initially It was used in reference to Bitcoin, However now it is applied to different types of crypto currencies.

Use of FUD And How it matters ?

Crypto community use FUD as a part of the overall information that impacts the price of the crypto’s in market. Newbies and Retail investors get frightened up easily with the spread of such negative news and that prompts the traders to sell while the rest is a self-fulfilling prophecy of a correction playing out.

Conspiracy theorists  argue that it is always whales and the elite and wealthy are behind spreading FUD which weighs on the value of Bitcoin or crypto and exploit the situation as a part of a devious strategy.

FUD matters as the Newbies get easily frightened and thus it leads the price to crash for long-term holders and the average cryptocurrency enthusiast with strong hands.

FUD in the Context of The Cryptocurrency Market

FUD is very powerful in the crypto arena as the crypto currencies are speculative at this stage. Thus it means that these assets are very volatile and giving them a value is more challenging and thus dramatic price swings can be seen even to a small information that is false or have less value.

Crypto FUD and Memes

Crypto FUD also involves the spread of memes that reduces the FUD’s effect.  Media’s spread FUD sometimes are considered as trivial, in that scenario the idea of making fun via creating memes pop up. Elsewhere, suppose the media spread FUD is legitimate in nature than making memes and making fun of those threats which lessens its seriousness might start circulating.

The below are some well known FUD examples of crypto market.

China’s Ban of Mining

This is one of the best crypto FUD and it is one of the FUD that has been the subject of many memes that Twitter rants than any other.

Every year when crypto hits its high and few times multiple time a year, The Chinese officials make a claim of banning Bitcoin in some way. Indeed a real comprehensive ban on Bitcoin will be a one time event But Chinese government brings some sort of restrictions for individuals or organizations involved in crypto markets. And what happens, the media report it as “ban on Bitcoin.”

In 2021, Crypto market was hardly shaken by the China making Bitcoin mining illegal in the country.

Government Regulation

National governments imposing regulations on the crypto, turn to be a big source of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Since the crypto market is still in its infancy stage, Many countries have not yet adopted regulatory framework that specifies rules about the use and taxation of the crypto currencies.

Some countries made the use of crypto illegal , while few others give warning about harsh restrictions coming in the near future. All these threats are real or perceived, however the involvement of the government in the crypto market weighs on the investors.

‘Ocean Boiling’ Bitcoin

The argument “Bitcoin uses so much energy which makes it unsuitable and it is  dangerous threat to the planet.” can be taken as another example of Crypto FUD.

The fact is that majority of the bitcoin mining uses renewable energy. Gold mining, banking, transportation, construction, healthcare, and other industries use exponentially more energy than it takes to maintain the Bitcoin network. It is worthy to be noted that the banking sector alone uses more than twice the energy of Bitcoin.

Final words

Crypto FUD is a crypto term that is almost as old Bitcoin. Now those who spread the crypto FUD are most likely doing with a hope of buying the coin at lower prices as holders will be induced to sell.

However, FUD isn’t always a bad thing. For instance, many BTC miners left China seeking a more welcoming environment, BTC mining is now a much greener industry, taking place mostly in the United States under stricter conditions.

New slangs will find its way onto the Internet every day. For the crypto sphere that is so young and lively, you can only expect slang to flourish even more!

Unchanged BOJ rate weighs on yen

  • As widely expected, the BOJ left unchanged a -0.1% target for short-term interest rates and pledged to guide long-term rates around 0%.
  • Japan braces for tougher covid-linked restrictions due to wide spread of the Omicron variant.
  • US dollar is high as traders braced for the possibility of a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve.

 

US dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen during the Tuesday Asian Session. BOJ’s monetary policy and the Covid woes could be the major catalysts behind the move.

The BoJ has left the 10-year yield target unchanged at 0.00% and also left the policy balance rate unchanged at -0.10%. The BoJ had cut the 2021 median Gross Domestic Product forecast to 2.8% from 3.4% but raised the 2022 median GDP forecast to 3.8% from 2.9%.

In a quarterly outlook report, the BOJ revised up its inflation forecast for the year beginning in April to 1.1% from the previous estimate of 0.9%. It also slightly raised its inflation forecast for fiscal 2023 to 1.1% from 1.0%.

The BOJ said in the report that “Risks to prices are generally balanced.” That compared with its assessment in October, which said risks were skewed to the downside.

The BOJ said “As wage increases give households more purchasing power, a broader range of firms will raise prices. That, in turn, will push up inflation and heighten public perceptions that prices will rise further, ” “Inflation expectations are heightening moderately,” the BOJ said, warning of the risk that price hikes could come faster than expected if global commodity costs remain high.

On Japan’s economy, the BOJ said its “recovery was becoming clearer” as the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic eased, a sign it was taking the recent spike in Omicron new coronavirus cases in stride. That was a more upbeat assessment than in October, when it said the economy was “picking up as a trend.”

Talking on the Covid woes, Japan had witnessed a jump in the daily infections and it is thinking to impose tougher covid-linked restrictions. “Japan is considering placing Tokyo and 10 prefectures under a COVID-19 quasi-state of emergency to curb rapidly spreading coronavirus cases, government sources said Monday,” per Kyodo news. Meanwhile covid cases in the US and the UK recede.

On the other hand, U.S. Treasury yields rose along the curve in Asia on Tuesday, lifting the shorter end to new pandemic highs as traders are bracing possibility of a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve. The Fed meets next week after a lead-in of fairly aggressive comments from officials highlighting the central bank’s readiness to act in the face of stubbornly high inflation.

“Hawkish Fed speak ahead of the blackout has reinforced odds of a March hike, with the market now pricing in 95% odds of a March rate “Hawkish Fed speak ahead of the blackout has reinforced odds of a March hike, with the market now pricing in 95% odds of a March rate hike and nearly four full hikes in 2022,” analysts at TD Securities wrote.

USD/JPY 4 Hour chart:

Support: 114.28 (S1), 113.95 (S2), 113.76 (S3).

Resistance: 114.80 (R1), 114.98 (R2), 115.31 (R3).

Amidst all the catalysts favoring the US dollar against the Japanese yen, we expect a bullish trend for USD/JPY.

Mixed Chinese data impacts Aussie

  • China Q4 2021 GDP, Industrial Production showed a rise against the previous reading and the market consesus But the Retail sector had a fall in the December month.
  • Expectation of rate cut and the drop of China’s birth rate creates a long term concern for China which in turn impacts Aussie.
  • Fed Rate Concerns and the Virus woes leads to the sour market sentiment.

 

Aussie trades low against the greenback during Monday Asian Session amidst release of Mixed China GDP data and sour market sentiment.

China’s fourth-quarter (Q4) GDP showed reading of 1.6 QoQ by rising against past 0.2% prior and 1.1% forecast And the YoY showed a reading of 4.0% versus 3.6% expected and 4.9% previous readouts. Elsewhere, the Industrial Production (IP) for December also rose to 4.3% more than 3.6% market consensus and 3.8% prior.

On the contrary, Retail Sales had a drop and fell to 1.7% in December which is below 3.7% market forecasts and 3.9% previous reading. Thus it shows the retail sector was badly hit by the coronavirus restrictions.

Beijing responded with a surprise easing in monetary policy which could help support activity in what is Australia’s single biggest export market. Analysts expect more policy rate cuts in the months to come.

As a long term concern for the Chinese’s economy, mainland China’s birth rate dropped to a record low of 7.52 per 1,000 people in 2021, NBS data also showed on Monday while extending a downward trend that led Beijing last year to begin allowing couples to have up to three children.

Investors are betting that the sharp hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve will put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to follow and tighten well before its proffered window of 2023.A first hike to 0.25% is priced in by June, with a better than 50-50 chance of a move in May, while rates are seen topping 1.0% by the end of the year.

“With the Fed’s December meeting just over a week away and a likely hawkish outcome, it’s hard to see the US$ giving too much more ground,” said Richard Franulovich, Westpac’s head of FX strategy.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said that the latest Omicron wave will extend the period that inflation will remain high. Fed’s Daly also said that officials are “going to have to adjust policy”. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said “Fed is approaching a decision to begin raising interest rates.” This comments makes concerns around the Fed’s rate hike stronger.

Talking about the virus woes,  Australia’s most populous state New South Wales (NSW) reported the biggest daily covid-linked deaths on Friday with 29 deaths, which recently eased to 17 cases. Then too, Australian health authorities are confident NSW will see a plateau in its COVID-19 hospitalizations next week, as the state’s numbers track “better than the best-case scenario” predicted.

AUD/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 0.7170 (S1), 0.7136 (S2), 0.7075 (S3).

Resistance: 0.7265 (R1), 0.7326 (R2), 0.7360 (R3).

The Mixed Chinese data along with the sour market sentiment drags the Aussie against the US dollar and we expect a bearish trend for AUD/USD.

BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (17th January 2022 – 21st January 2022)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin edged higher against the US dollar during the trading course of the week. The rationale behind the move can be related to the fall of the dollar due to the Labor Statistics showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 7% on a yearly basis in December on Wednesday. Moreover, the country released December Retail Sales that was much worse than anticipated, falling by 1.9% MoM. Elsewhere, The core reading, Retail Sales Control Group, declined to -3.1 amidst all the catalysts the US dollar showed a downtrend.

On the other hand,   Financial guru Dave Ramsey says crypto is “fun” and can be a small part of investment portfolios. He said “It’s a commodity. Is it going to be around? Sure, it’s going to be around.” Also favoring the King Crypto was the JP Morgan survey. JPMorgan has conducted a survey of its clients about what they expect the price of bitcoin to be by year-end. The global investment bank released the results earlier this week. About 41% of the bank’s clients who responded expect bitcoin to end the year at around $60,000. 23% expect the price to be $20,000 while 20% expect it to be $40,000. In addition, 9% believe that the price of BTC will reach $80,000, 5% think that it could be $100,000 or more, while 2% expect it to fall to $10,000 or lower.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are TIC Net Long-Term Transactions at Jan 18, Building Permits at Jan 19, Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Jan 20 and Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count at Jan 21 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 6.62% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 44422.2 and low at 39660.5 showed a movement of 4762 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 45086.8 may open a clean path towards 47135.3 and may take a way up to 49848.5. Should 40325.1 prove to be unreliable support, the BTCUSD may sink downwards 37611.9 and 35563.4 respectively. In H4 chart cup and handle pattern formation favors prospects of a bullish trend. Bullish engulfing pattern constructs a bullish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

 Preference
Buy: 43056.6 target at 47659.9 and stop loss at 40320.2

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 40320.2 target at 35565.4 and stop loss at 43056.6