AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (29th November 2021 – 03rd December 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Australian dollar formed a bearish rally against the American dollar this week. Australian central bank is very dovish, while the Federal Reserve is looking to taper bond purchases. US Federal Reserve is one of the few central banks that have already took action to reduce facilities. Moreover, Australia is stepping ahead into its national reopening plan, as over 86% of the population aged 16 or more has been fully vaccinated. According to a recent news, Australian Minister for Health and Aged Care, the newly discovered coronavirus variant that’s taking its toll on financial markets on Friday would not affect it., He further added that the developments would be closely monitored.  

Commonwealth Bank Services PMI on 23rd November and US New Home Sales on 24th November created uptrend whereas Markit Manufacturing PMI on 23rd November and Australia Construction Work Done quarterly report on 24th November created downtrend for the pair in this week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Speech at Nov 29, RBA Private Sector Credit monthly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Nov 30, Australia GDP quarterly report, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Dec 01 and Nonfarm Payrolls at Dec 03.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.35% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7272 and low at 0.7109 showed a movement of 163 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A firm breakout below 0.7061 may make a fall to 0.7003 and then may take a way down to 0.6898. Should 0.7224 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards to 0.7329 and 0.7387 respectively. In H4 chart descending scallop pattern favors prospects of a bearish trend. Further bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7117 target at 0.6969 and stop loss at 0.7229

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7229 target at 0.7386 and stop loss at 0.7117

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (29th November 2021 – 03rd December 2021)

Fundamental view:

US dollar raised in the beginning of the week and reached its peak 115.52 on Wednesday since January 2017, the reason behind this move can be related to US inflation and Consumer spending data. But the outbreak of new coronavirus variant led to the risk aversion sentiment in the market , Along with that, better than forecast Tokyo inflation pulled the USD/JPY down. The Fed has initiated the withdrawal from its monthly $120 billion bond purchases at its November 3 meeting. A reduction of $15 billion is scheduled for November and December, with continuing subtractions expected until the program is eliminated in June. The reappointment of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair also favored the dollar On the other hand, the emergence of the South African variant led to risk aversion market sentiment.

US GDP quarterly report on 24th November and BoJ Corporate Services Price Index yearly report on 25th November framed bullish trend Whereas US Markit Services PMI on 23rd November and Tokyo CPI yearly on 26th November report framed bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoJ Governor Kuroda Speech, Fed Chair Powell Speech at Nov 29, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Nov 30, Japan Markit Manufacturing PMI, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Dec 01 and Nonfarm Payrolls at Dec 03.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.48% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 115.52 and low at 113.05 showed a movement of 247 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A firm breakout below 112.43 may make a fall of 111.50 and then further fall of 109.96. Should 114.90 prove to be unreliable resistance, the USDJPY may raise upwards to 116.44 and 117.37 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of channel pattern breakout indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bearish trend Along with a shooting star formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Sell: 113.35 target at 111.51 and stop loss at 114.04

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 114.04 target at 116.41 and stop loss at 113.35

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (29th November 2021 – 03rd December 2021)

Fundamental view:

The British pound started this week with a bearish trend as greenback continued to gain strength due to rising US Treasury bond yields. But ahead of the weekend, the risk aversion market sentiment led to a sharp drop in yields and helping the pound to erase a small portion of its weekly losses. Bank of England (BoE) policymakers are concerned about wage inflation and reassess the need to hike the policy rate by 20 basis points in December. BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Silvana Tenreyro said on Wednesday that she does not want to say specifically if the BoE would make its first rate hike in either December or February. She further added that she was expecting a “modest tightening policy.” Moving to Brexit, According to post brexit negotiations, both sides are not expecting to come to a conclusion before the end of the year. On the Friday, escalating fears over the new coronavirus variant slowing down the global economic recovery caused safe-haven flows to dominate the financial markets and thus causing a risk aversion sentiment.

US Existing Home Sales on 22nd November and US Markit Services PMI on 23rd November created uptrend whereas US Markit Manufacturing PMI on 23rd November and US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report on 24th November created downtrend for the pair in this week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoE Consumer Credit monthly report, Fed Chair Powell Speech at Nov 29, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Nov 30, UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Dec 01 and Nonfarm Payrolls at Dec 03.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.45% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3453 and low at 1.3277 showed a movement of 176 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A firm breakout below 1.3256 may make a fall to 1.3179 and then further fall to 1.3080. Should 1.3432 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3531 and 1.3608 respectively. Chart formation of head and shoulders pattern breakout in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Bearish harami pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.3333 target at 1.3180 and stop loss at 1.3437

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.3437 target at 1.3607 and stop loss at 1.3333

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (29th November 2021 – 03rd December 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Euro initially fell against the greenback in the first half of the week but later part of the week, risk aversion took over financial markets weighing on greenback and Euro closed with a weekly bull candle. US Policymakers are very cautious, however the Minutes of the Fed’s November meeting released on Wednesday showed that many participants were of the view that elevated prices could become more persistent and that the central bank should be prepared to taper further if needed. Whereas On the other hand, the European Central Bank Monetary Policy Accounts showed that the ECB is in no rush to change its monetary policy. The new corona virus variant outbreak also added to the risk aversion.

US GDP quarterly report on 24th November  and Eurozone Retail sales quarterly report on 25th November framed bearish trend whereas US Existing Home Sales data on 22nd November and ECB Vice President de Guindos Speech on 23rd November framed bullish trend for the pair in this week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Speech at Nov 29, Eurozone GDP quarterly report, US CB Consumer Confidence Index at Nov 30, ECB Non-monetary Policy Meeting, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Dec 01 and Nonfarm Payrolls at Dec 03.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.20% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1328 and low at 1.1186 showed a movement of 142 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A firm breakout below 1.1225 may make a fall to 1.1134 and then take a way down to 1.1083. Should 1.1367 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards to 1.1418 and 1.1509 respectively. In H4 chart, if breakout of the rising wedge is to the downside then bearish expectation is favored. Bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 1.1299 target at 1.1157 and stop loss at 1.1372

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.1372 target at 1.1521 and stop loss at 1.1299