How to swing trade

What is Swing trading?

Swing trading is a speculative trading strategy where a tradable asset is held for one or more days in an effort to profit from price changes or ‘swings’. It has been described as a kind of fundamental trading in which positions are held for longer than a single day but shorter than buy and hold strategies that can be held for months or years.

Most fundamental traders are swing traders since changes in corporate fundamentals generally require several days or even a week to cause sufficient price movement to render a reasonable profit.

Swing trading lies in the middle of the continuum between day trading to trend trading. A day trader will hold a tradable asset anywhere ranging from a few seconds to a few hours but not more than a day whereas a trend trader will examine the long-term fundamental trends of a tradable asset and may hold it for a few weeks or months.

Swing traders hold a tradable asset  a period of time which generally ranges from a few days to two or three weeks, that falls between those extremes, and they will trade the tradable asset  on the basis of its intra-week or intra-month swinging between optimism and pessimism.

Day Trading Vs Swing Trading

Day trading and Swing trading may appear like similar practices but the major difference between the two to be said in a single word is time. Let’s compare both of them in depth.

Time frame: Day trading means getting in and out of trades within minutes or hour whereas Swing trading is generally over days or weeks.

Gap opening risk: The shorter time frame of day traders means they don’t hold positions overnight. Hence, they avoid the risk of gaps from news announcements coming in after hours and causing a big move against them. On the other hand, swing traders should be alert that a tradable asset could open significantly different from what it closed the day before.

Commission: In shorter time frame, wide spread between the bid, the ask and commissions can eat a large portion of your profits. Day traders can find themselves doing all the work, and at last get less or no profit due to spread and commission. Whereas Swing traders can also struggle with this, but its effect is more for the day trader.

Time commitment: Proper day trading requires focus and attention on numerous positions and constantly looking for new potential opportunities throughout the day to replace exited positions. That means this cannot be treated as one of a job but a full time job instead.

This dependency might cause more stress. Not having a steady paycheck makes a day trader’s income reliant on trading success. That can add an extra level of stress and emotions to trading, and more emotions in trading lead to poor decisions.

On contrary, Swing trading may have a few transactions some days and nothing on others. Positions can be checked periodically, just need to be alert when critical price points are reached rather than the need for constant monitoring. This allows swing traders to diversify their investments.

Swing trading is the right choice for you if you have the below qualities

  • You will not mind holding your trades for several days.
  • You are ready to take fewer trades and will focus on good trade setups.
  • You are patient.
  • You will remain calm if trade goes against you.
  • You will set large stop losses.

 

Swing Trading is not a right choice for you in case you are one of the above

  • You are interested in fast-paced, action-packed trading.
  • You are impatient and can’t wait for the trade to run for a day.
  • You can’t take it easily when trade go against you

 

Suppose you have a full time job but enjoy trading too, then swing trading might be a right choice for you. Keep in mind that every trading style has its pros and cons, and it is up to you the trader to choose which one you will be apt for you.

Trading Strategies

We have listed some of the strategies that you can use to identify trading opportunities and manage your trades.

1. Fibonacci retracement

The Fibonacci retracement can be used to help the traders to identify support and resistance levels. Based on this indicator, they can find market reversal opportunities.  Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8% are believed to reveal potential reversal levels.

A swing trader may enter a buy trade when the price is in a downward trend and seems to find support at the 61.8% retracement level from its previous high.

Go through our book on Fibonacci and understand Fibonacci in depth.

2. Support and resistance

Support and resistance are critical tools in technical analysis.

A Resistance level represents a price level or area above the current market price where the selling may overcome buying pressure thus breaking the uptrend and making the price to turn back down. Here, a swing trader could enter a sell position on the bounce off the resistance level and place a stop loss above the resistance line.

Support is opposite of resistance. Support is a price level or area on the chart which is below the current market price where buying is strong enough to overcome selling pressure. Hence price stops from falling and price turns raises again. A swing trader would look to enter a buy trade on the bounce off the support line and places a stop loss below the support line.

An important aspect to remember in using Support and Resistance in swing trading is that when price breaches a support or resistance level, they switch roles –Once called a support then becomes a resistance and vice versa.  Acquire full knowledge of Support and Resistance.

3. Channel trading

Channel trading requires you to identify a tradable asset that is displaying a strong trend and which is trading within a channel. Suppose you have plotted a channel around a bullish trend on a chart, you would consider opening a long position when the price rises up from the bottom line of the channel. While using channels to swing-trade, it is very important to trade with the trend, in the above example where the price is in  uptrend, you would only go for buy trades – unless price breaks out of the channel, moving lower and indicating a reversal and the beginning of an downtrend. Learn How to trade the Channel pattern

4. Japanese candlesticks

Most of the traders prefer to use the Japanese candlestick charts since they are easier to understand and interpret. Candlesticks can be used to examine price action over any timeframe, from one second up to an entire year. Traders make use of specific candlestick patterns to identify trading opportunities.

After reviewing the popular swing trading strategies, follow the below steps and start swing trading

  • Open a live trading account: First open a live trading account to start swing trading. Before opening a live account, we recommend you to open demo account to practice the above swing trading strategies in a risk-free environment.
  • Analyze the market technically and fundamentally: Use any of strategies listed above or your preferable strategy to analyse the market technically. Also  analyse the market fundamentally 
  • Choose a tradable asset based on your research: Once you have undertaken your research, make a decision on which asset and what time frame you wish to swing trade. Also make a decision on your entry and exit strategy based off your swing trading signal.
  • Make use of risk management tools: Make use of Stop loss and take profit order to mitigate the risks involved. These risk management tools will help you to keep your trades consistent and relevant to the trading strategy you use.
  • Monitor your position regularly: Monitor your trade which is open. Be aware of gapping and slippage, and changes within the market’s sentiment.
  • Exit trade if needed: Suppose the trade has not been exited by your stop loss, close the trade as per your swing trading strategy.

Final words :

In short, Swing trading refers to the trading style that is used by traders who try to profit from price swings. It attempts to identify “swings” within a medium-term trend and enter only when there seems to be a high probability of winning. Whereas it requires a comprehensive understanding of technical and fundamental analysis , it can result in more efficient returns, relative to day trading. Just like any form of trading, there will be risks involved. Open account now and practice swing trading.

 Happy Trading !!!

Bearish sentiment grips Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trading low during the black Friday trading session. Some recent news underpin the bearish sentiment for the King Crypto.

Hillary Clinton, former Democratic presidential candidate, talked about cryptocurrency Tuesday. She elaborated on her crypto statement last week and warned that the technology may be manipulated by countries like China and Russia to undermine the United States.

She said “We are looking at not only states, such as China or Russia or others, manipulating technology of all kinds to their advantage; we are looking at nonstate actors, either in concert with states or on their own, destabilizing countries, destabilizing the dollar as the reserve currency.”

The government of India has listed a cryptocurrency bill to be taken up in the upcoming session of parliament that starts next week. The bill seeks to prohibit cryptocurrencies with some exceptions. According to the government’s description, the bill aims “To create a facilitative framework for creation of the official digital currency to be issued by the Reserve Bank of India. The bill also seeks to prohibit all private cryptocurrencies in India, however, it allows for certain exceptions to promote the underlying technology of cryptocurrency and its uses.”

Moreover, The CEO of global investment bank JPMorgan has warned investors about investing in cryptocurrency.

He said “Cryptocurrency has no intrinsic value. You are basically buying a token,” he further said. “I would be very careful.”

On the other hand, The Fed began cutting back on the monthly bond-buying program from this month and stands ready to accelerate the unwinding of stimulus if things continue to heat up. Hence the dollar remained strong this week.

BTC/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 57332.2 (S1), 55844.5 (S2), 54800.1 (S3).

Resistance: 59864.3 (R1), 60908.7 (R2), 62396.4 (R3).

Amidst all the catalyst pressuring Bitcoin against the greenback, we expect a bearish trend for BTC/USD.

FOMC minutes favors the yellow metal

Gold is trading higher against the greenback today. The yellow metal had a drop to the lowest level of $1778 the previous day since November 4.

The uptrend of the yellow metal can be linked to the pullback in the US Treasury yields. Pullback of the US Treasury yields can be related to the release of FOMC minutes yesterday. FOMC minutes from the last meeting of the Fed’s monetary policy-setting committee showed FOMC members getting more concerned about rising inflationary pressures and now believe that inflation will hang around longer than previously thought. Inflation will subside significantly in 2022, believes the committee members. Some Fed officials wanted a faster pace of “tapering” of the Fed’s bond-buying program. Others were worried about elevated asset valuations. The members said labor participation would likely be lower in the coming months because of early retirements.

US had a big batch of data yesterday with mixed outcomes but mostly upbeat, however this does not create any impact on the yellow metal. US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index jumped to 5.0% YoY in October, surpassing 4.6% expected and 4.4% prior. GDP quarterly report of US showed 2.1% by exceeding expectation of 2%.Upbeat Core durable goods order data showing 0.5% also beat the expectation of 0.3%.

On the other hand, Rising Covid-19 cases in Europe and Asia continue to create risk sentiment in the market. Austria is on a virtually complete lockdown and German officials are warning Covid cases are rising at an alarming rate. This Covid woes also favors the yellow metal.

XAU/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 1779.0 (S1), 1769.7 (S2), 1761.0 (S3).

Resistance: 1796.9 (R1), 1805.6 (R2), 1814.8 (R3).

In the meantime, the uptrend of the yellow metal relies on the lackluster market conditions amid a lack of major data/events, as well as the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US. We expect a bullish trend for XAU/USD.

RBNZ interest rate decision weighs on kiwi

Kiwi remains under pressure on Wednesday and trades around 0.69098. The drop of kiwi can be related to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision.

Central bank of New Zealand fails to surprise markets by announcing a widely anticipated 25 basis points (bps) of a rate hike for the second time.

RBNZ said further stimulus easing may be needed and the OCR may go above its neutral rate. “The Committee expected that the OCR would need to be progressively increased and, conditional on the economy evolving as expected, the OCR would likely need to be raised above its neutral rate,” the bank said in the minutes of the meeting.

Whereas before the cash rate decision, New Zealand’s covid battle favored the kiwi and it was trading upside.

New Zealand said on Wednesday that fully vaccinated foreign travellers will be able to enter the country from April 30, and it will ease its border curbs that have been in place since March last year.

The Covid – 19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said at a news conference that “Fully vaccinated New Zealanders in Australia can travel to New Zealand without requiring quarantine from Jan.16 He further said “Fully Vaccinated New Zealanders and other eligible travellers from other countries can start travelling to New Zealand without quarantine from Feb 13.”

However, Traders are placing bearish bets on Kiwi after the interest rate decision, traders are now keen to watch RBNZ’s Orr and multiple top-tier US data for directing their bets further.

NZD/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 0.6910 (S1), 0.6876 (S2), 0.6837 (S3).

Resistance: 0.6983 (R1), 0.7022 (R2), 0.7056 (R3).

In the current scenario, kiwi is trading downside on the RBNZ’s interest rate. We expect a bearish trend for NZD/USD.