Algorithmic Trading

What is Algorithmic Trading?

Algorithmic trading strategies involve making trading decisions based on pre-set instructions that are programmed into a computer. A trader writes a code that executes trades on behalf of the trader when certain conditions are met.

The defined sets of instructions are based on timing, price, quantity, or any mathematical model. Apart from profit opportunities for the trader, algorithmic trading provides markets more liquid and trading more systematic by ruling out the impact of human emotions on trading activities.

 Difference between automated trading and algorithmic trading 

Automated trading and Algorithmic trading are often used by people as interchangeable terms but there is a small difference between them.

Automated trading normally refers to automation of manual trading through limits and stops that will automatically close out your open positions on reaching a certain level regardless of whether you being at your computer or not.

On the other hand, Algorithmic trading normally refers to the process in which a trader will develop and refine their own codes and formulas to analyze the markets and enter or exit trades based on the current market conditions.

What are the main algorithmic trading strategies?

A price action strategy, a technical analysis strategy, and a combination strategy are the 3 main algorithmic trading strategies.

A price action algorithmic trading strategy will look in to the previous session high and low prices or open and close, and it’ll trigger a buy or sell order if similar levels are achieved in the future.

For example you can create an algorithm to enter long or short orders if the price moves above point A, or if the price falls below point B. This is a popular algorithm among scalpers who want to make sequences of quick but small profits throughout the day on highly volatile markets, this process is called as high-frequency trading (HFT).

You need to assess whether and when you want to go long or short and also need to consider measures to help you manage your risk, such as stops and limits for creating a price action algorithmic trading strategy.

You can configure a price action trading algorithm depending on the market, the time frame, the size of the trade and the time of the day when the algorithm should work thus it will help you capture volatility as the markets open or close.

Example :

  • Place a buy trade of 10 lots of EUR/USD if the EUR/USD falls and reaches the price 1.1290. Close 1 lot of it if the price falls by 10 pip. For every 10 pip fall in EUR/USD, increase the short position by 1 lot.
  • Sell 1000 shares of Netflix (NFLX) if the price rises above 700. For every 0.1% decrease in price below 700, sell 10 shares whereas for every 0.1% increase in price beyond 700, buy 10 shares.

A technical analysis algorithmic trading strategy depend on technical indicators including Moving Average, Bollinger bands, stochastic oscillators, the relative strength index and many more.

To create a technical analysis strategy, you’ll need to research and be comfortable using different technical indicators. For example, you can create algorithms based on Moving Average by knowing the trend of the market. Whether you open or close depends on your attitude to risk, and whether you have a long or short position in a rising or falling market.

Here in technical strategy you become less interested on price and more involved in using indicators or a combination of indicators to trigger your buy and sell orders.

Example :

Let’s understand it with a simple example – Algorithmic trading based on Moving Average indication

  • Moving Average Algorithmic trading is most popular and very simple to implement. This algorithm buys a tradable asset (e.g., currency pair) if its current market price is below its average market price over some period and vice versa sells a tradable asset if its market price is more than its average market price over some period. Here, we consider a 50-day moving average trading algorithm.
  • The algorithm buys EUR/USD if the current market price is trading below the 50-day moving average and sells EUR/USD if the current market price is trading above the 50-day moving average.
  • The green arrow indicates a point in time when the algorithm would’ve bought the currency, and the red arrow indicates a point in time when this algorithm would’ve sold currency.

As the name suggest, a combination algorithmic trading strategy make use of both price action and technical analysis to understand the market and confirm the potential movement of the price. Algorithms can then go with long or short orders based on this information.

Combination trading strategy needs you to study the historical price action of the desired tradable asset. This means understanding of different technical indicators properly and collect the details of asset’s previous price movements.

In a combination strategy, you will have to decide on the entry type – buy or sell, and when you want the algorithm to trade during the day. You can configure a combination strategy depending on the market, the time frame, the size of the trade and the different indicators that the algorithm is designed to use.

Algorithmic trading gives the below advantages:

  • High chance of order to be executed at desired level.
  • Order is executed instantly and at best possible price
  • Reduces manual error in placing orders.
  • Reducing transaction costs.
  • Simultaneous automated checks on various market conditions
  • It can be back tested with available historical and real-time data to see if it is a viable trading strategy.
  • Eradicates emotional and psychological factors thus reduces possibilities of human mistakes.

 

Benefits of Algorithmic trading to different investors

Different types of investors use Algorithmic trading for many forms of trading and investment activities including:

  • Short-term traders –  Market makers, arbitrageurs, and speculators benefit from fast and automated trade execution.
  • Sellers Algorithmic trading also helps in creating sufficient liquidity for sellers in the market.
  • Medium and long-term investors or buy-side firms – This segment includes mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies that use algorithmic trading to purchase stocks in large quantities when they do not want to influence stock prices with discrete, large-volume investments.
  • Systematic tradersSystematic traders include trend followers, hedge funds, or pair’s traders and Algorithmic trading benefit them as they program their trading rules and let the program trade automatically.
  • Dependence on Technology: The biggest disadvantage of algorithmic trading is its complete dependence on technology. The trade orders, in most of the cases, reside on the computer, and not on the server. This means that if the internet connection is lost, the order will not be sent for execution.
  • Loss of Human Control: Algorithmic trading is completely automated. The humans are not left with the room for making any discretionary choices. Suppose if a trader realizes before the execution of the order that the strategy will not work in the particular scenario, he cannot abandon the program and stop the trade in that scenario.
  • Not all strategies can be automated: There are few most worthy strategies that are almost sure-shot. However, all strategies cannot be automated and converted into an algorithm. So, the use of such strategies is not possible in algorithmic trading. 
  • Short life span of the algorithms: Almost 98% of the algorithms have a very short lifespan. They work till they are suitable, and then suddenly stop working in the rapidly changing market. So they require to be fixed or recreated further.

Bottom Line :

Algorithmic trading is an effective and efficient method of trading. Mainly it eradicates the effect of emotions from the trades. Emotions play a vital role in the trading process. Sometimes greed for profits or scared of losses may takeover trader and he may take decisions that are not meant to be taken. Algorithmic trading helps to reduce the subjective parts of trading and ensures the decisions are made objectively.

On the other hand, algorithmic trading has some drawbacks too. The costs to automate the strategies, build the algorithms and developing the trading software are high. And Algorithmic trading is very much dependent on technology and machines, and cannot withstand outages. The traders still need to monitor their trades and cannot leave the systems unattended.

Hence like all other forms of trading, the traders must deal carefully in algorithmic trading. The traders must practice due diligence while algorithmic trading in live market.

Fed chair Powell’s reappointment favors USD

Pound is trading downside against the greenback. This can be related to the US President Joe Biden’s nomination for the Fed Chair’s position, Brexit woes, COVID-19 fears and Dovish stance of BoE bailey ahead of the UK and the US preliminary PMI numbers for November.

President Biden on Monday nominated Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a Republican, for a second four-year term, tapping the battle-tested centrist who helped lift the U.S. economy out of the COVID-19 recession and enjoys strong bipartisan support. Biden also nominated Democrat Fed Governor Lael Brainard as vice chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, succeeding Republican Richard Clarida. This turned to be favorable for the US dollar and in turn weighed on the pound.

Brexit woes also plays a major role in betting the bearish trend for the quote. As per a recent report, With no breakthrough on the Northern Ireland (NI) border talks with the European Union (EU), UK’s Brexit Minister David Frost said, We can’t carry on as we were before,” Lord Frost said. “If, after Brexit, all we do is import the European social model, we will not succeed.” The policymaker also highlights that the NI border talks are his “top priority”.

On the other hand, recent report of Independence notes that “France has told the UK it is in its “best interest to settle” the post-Brexit fishing dispute, saying if the two countries are to work together the UK must remain “true” to their word.”

BoE Bailey also breaks the consumer confidence for pound. Over the weekend, Governor Bailey expressed that “inflation could be elevated for longer, though there is also the chance that it could not be as permanent as feared.”

He also added that “there are risks both ways. Obviously, our concern would be that if it gets into second-round effects, it could be elevated for longer.” During the last week, Governor Bailey showed that his uneasiness about the inflation outlook.

Apart from all this, worries about surging COVID-19 cases also benefits the greenback’s relative safe-haven status and weighs on the Sterling.

GBP/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 1.3368 (S1), 1.3342 (S2), 1.3300 (S3).

Resistance: 1.3437 (R1), 1.3479 (R2), 1.3505 (R3).

Today’s UK PMIs and US PMIs are the key in directing the pair further; in the meantime all the catalysts weigh on the pound. We expect a bearish trend for GBP/USD.

Covid woes pressurizes Euro

The EUR/USD pair remained under pressure and is trading just a few pips above a 16-month low touched on Friday, in the Asian session.

A number of factors combine together to underpin the bearish trend of the pair, although the oversold conditions kept away the traders from placing new bearish bets.

The greenback is favored by the traders due to early policy tightening by the Fed and was further supported by fresh COVID-19 worries.

Austria becomes the first country in Western Europe to impose a full COVID-19 lockdown from Monday. The rising numbers of COVID-19 cases resulted in a full lockdown in Austria.

German Health Minister Jens Spahn called the situation in the country a national emergency, adding that vaccinations alone will not reduce the numbers.

On the other hand, Traders are betting that the US central bank would be forced to adopt a more aggressive policy response to contain stubbornly high inflationary pressures. Additionally, US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has urged the central bank to speed up the pace of tapering asset purchases in response to the surging inflation.

Waller said that “To me, the inflation data are starting to look a lot more like a big snowfall that will stay on the ground for a while, and that development is affecting my expectations of the level of monetary accommodation that is needed going forward.”

Moreover, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida and Governor Christopher Waller on Friday suggested that faster asset tapering could be appropriate as economic recovery quickens and inflation rises. This could also mean earlier interest rate hikes.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart:

Support: 1.1229 (S1), 1.1178 (S2), 1.1106 (S3).

Resistance: 1.1352 (R1), 1.1424 (R2), 1.1475 (R3).

The speculation on early policy tightening by the Fed and Covid woes favors the US dollar and weighs on the Euro; we expect a bearish trend for EUR/USD.

BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (22nd November 2021 – 26th November 2021)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin price is deep under $60000 as it had a hard fall this week. Bearish trend was framed by the two negative events happened in the past few days. On Nov. 12, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) denied VanEck’s spot Bitcoin ETF request, Upon the rejection the Bitcoin saw a dip but most important than the rejection was the rationale behind the rejection. The SEC directly mentioned their uncertainties about Tether’s (USDT) stablecoin and the incapacity to deter fraud and market manipulation in Bitcoin trading.

On Nov 15, US lawmakers introduced a bipartisan bill that seeks to modify a cryptocurrency tax provision in President Joe Biden’s newly passed infrastructure deal. The bill is intended to modify a section of the law that amends the Internal Revenue. Biden’s infrastructure deal would require anyone who receives more than $10,000 in digital assets to report their personal information to the Internal Revenue Service. This will be mandated in 2024.

On the other hand, Adoption of the Bitcoin seem to favor it, Increased adoption has been reflected in the move by the Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss to raise $400 million in an equity growth funding round led by Morgan Creek Digital. The round had participants like 10T, ParaFi, Newflow Partners, Marcy Venture Partners and more puts the Gemini exchange at a valuation of $7.1 billion. Elsewhere, based on the adoption theme, a recent BankofAmerica (BoA)survey revealed that one in four analysts believe that Bitcoin price will hit $75,000 in 12 months. 20% of the survey respondents noted that BTC is likely to remain relatively stable between $50,000 and $75,000. On contrary, the rest noted that the king crypto was in for a steep correction to anywhere between $25,000 and $50,000.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US Markit Manufacturing PMI at Nov 23, US GDP quarterly report, US Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Michigan Consumer Sentiment and FOMC Minutes at Nov 24 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 4.00% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 66336.5 and low at 55613.5 showed a movement of 10723 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bearish trend. The Instrument is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. Breakout below 54155.8 may make a fall to 49523.2 and open a way down to 43432.8. Should 64878.8 prove to be unreliable resistance, the BTCUSD may raise upwards 70969.2 and 75601.8 respectively. In H4 chart bearish rectangle pattern breakout favors prospects of a bearish trend. Further shooting star pattern constructs a bearish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Sell: 58839.6 target at 50700.4 and stop loss at 64882.8

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 64882.8 target at 75600.5 and stop loss at 58839.6