AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (08th November 2021 – 12th November 2021)

Fundamental view:

Australian dollar had a fall against the greenback ending the week just below the 0.7400 level, The US dollar gained strength after the US Federal Reserve delivered as expected. The US Central Bank had kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25% which was widely expected and announced the reduction of its asset purchases by $15 billion per month. On the other hand, The Reserve Bank of Australia announced its monetary policy decision on Tuesday , leaving the cash rate at 0.10% as expected. And the central bank will continue to purchase government securities at a rate of A$4 billion a week until at least February 2022 and formally dropped the 10 basis point target for the April 2024 bond.

Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI on 1st November and US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change on 3rd November framed bullish trend whereas RBA Interest Rate Decision on 2nd November and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change on 3rd November framed bearish trend.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Speech at Nov 08, Australia NAB Business Confidence  at Nov 09, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Federal Budget Balance at Nov 10, Australia Employment Change at Nov 11, US JOLTS Job Openings and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Nov 12.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.26% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7535 and low at 0.7359 showed a movement of 176 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading below the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A firm breakout below 0.7325 may fall to 0.7254 and may take a way down to 0.7149. Should 0.7501 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards 0.7606 and 0.7677 respectively. In H4 chart head and shoulders pattern creates prospects of a bearish trend. Further bearish engulfing formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7396 target at 0.7255 and stop loss at 0.7506

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7506 target at 0.7676 and stop loss at 0.7396

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (08th November 2021 – 12th November 2021)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week while portraying negative weekly trend. The Federal Reserve announcement that it was ending, gradually, its emergency bond program, this was the most highly anticipated market event of the year. The US Central Bank had kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25% as per the anticipation. On the other hand, Meaningful Japanese data this week was just the Overall Household Spending for September which fell 1.9% on the year, less than the 3.9% expected and August’s 3% decline. 

Japan Markit Manufacturing PMI on 1st November and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change on 3rd November created bullish outlook whereas  Initial Jobless Claims on 4th November and Japan Household Spending monthly report on 5th November created bearish outlook for the pair in this week.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Speech, Japan Current Account n.s.a. at Nov 08, US Initial Jobless Claims, BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index monthly report, US Federal Budget Balance at Nov 10, US JOLTS Job Openings and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Nov 12.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.11% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 114.44 and low at 113.30 showed a movement of 114 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 114.11 may open a clean path towards 114.85 and may take a way up to 115.25. Should 112.97 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards to 112.57 and 111.83 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of bullish shark pattern indicates reversal of the trend raising the prospects of a bullish trend amidst a bullish harami formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 113.42 target at 114.54 and stop loss at 112.92

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 112.92 target at 111.85 and stop loss at 113.42

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (08th November 2021 – 12th November 2021)

Fundamental view:

The British pound has fallen during the course of the trading week to reach below 1.35 level. The employment figures in the United States were stronger than the anticipation which helped the US dollar. The US Central Bank had kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25% which was widely expected and announced the reduction of its asset purchases by $15 billion per month. On the other hand, the Bank of England decide to punt on tapering, thereby risking a slowdown due to inflation. “Markets must make unconditional calls in response to the conditional statements” said Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. In an attempt to explain why markets could not put on the decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Only two out of nine members opted for fighting rising inflation with higher borrowing costs. Pound fell sharply in response.

Britain Nationwide HPI yearly report and Britain Markit/CIPS Services PMI on 3rd November favored bullish trend for the pair whereas ISM Manufacturing PMI on 1st November and  BoE Interest Rate Decision on 4th November favored bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Speech at Nov 08, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Federal Budget Balance at Nov 10, UK Manufacturing Production monthly report, UK GDP quarterly report at Nov 11, US JOLTS Job Openings and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Nov 12.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.95% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3698 and low at 1.3424 showed a movement of 274 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A firm breakout below 1.3378 may fall to 1.3264 and may take a way down to 1.3104. Should 1.3652 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards 1.3812 and 1.3926 respectively. Chart formation of descending and inverted scallop pattern in H4 chart favors prospects of a bearish trend. Shooting star pattern formation escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.3495 target at 1.3242 and stop loss at 1.3657

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.3657 target at 1.3925 and stop loss at 1.3495

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (08th November 2021 – 12th November 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Euro had initially tried to rally during the course of the week but gave up gains and fell to the 1.5 level. The US dollar gained strength after the US Federal Reserve delivered as expected. The US Central Bank had kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.25% which was widely expected and announced the reduction of its asset purchases by $15 billion per month. Elsewhere, The Fed is about to taper its $120 billion pandemic-related program later in November with reductions in Treasuries purchases by $10 bln and mortgage-backed securities by $5 bln. As far as inflation is concerned, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell & Co said they still believe high inflation will be transitory, even though Powell noted that supply chain issues would likely extend well into next year, which gives indication that inflation will also remain high.  

ISM Manufacturing Employment on 1st November and Europe Unemployment Rate on 3rd November favored bearish trend whereas Bbk Executive Board Member Wuermeling Speech on 1st November and Europe Markit Manufacturing PMI on 2nd November favored bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Chair Powell Speech at Nov 08, Europe ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator at Nov 09, ECB Non-monetary Policy Meeting, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Federal Budget Balance at Nov 10, US JOLTS Job Openings and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Nov 12.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.65% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1616 and low at 1.1513 showed a movement of 103 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A firm breakout below 1.1514 may fall to 1.1462 and may take a way down to 1.1411. Should 1.1617 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.1668 and 1.1720 respectively. Chart formation of a Bearish gartley pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.1564 target at 1.1463 and stop loss at 1.1622

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.1622 target at 1.1719 and stop loss at 1.1564