BTC/USD Weekly Forecast (18th October 2021 – 22nd October 2021)

Fundamental view:

Bitcoin rallied against the US dollar during the trading course of the week. Optimism is bordering euphoria in the cryptocurrency market after documents pointed toward the eventual approval of Valkyrie’s Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund, or ETF, application by the United States Securities Exchange Commission before the end of the month. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had greenlighted bitcoin futures ETFs in a first for the industry on Friday, after the regulator’s five commissioners met on the issue. ProShares, which had filed for its Bitcoin Strategy ETF this past summer, might be the first to launch next week. The company filed a post-effective amended prospectus on Oct. 15, stating its filing is expected to launch on Monday, Oct. 18, though the fund may not begin trading immediately.

ETF Store President Nate Geraci told CoinDesk the form is “a step forward” for digital assets and bridging them with the more traditional financial sector. He confirmed that the filing of a post-effective amendment is confirmation of the SEC’s tacit approval. Amidst this catalyst playing a major role, Bitcoin seem to show a bullish trend.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Oct 18, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 20, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 21 and Markit Manufacturing PMI at Oct 22 for US.

BTC/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 10.09% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 62819.6 and low at 54147.8 showed a movement of 8672 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect BTC/USD to show a bullish trend. The Instrument is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 64835.1 may open a clean path towards 68163.3 and then may take a way up to 73506.9. Should 56163.3 prove to be unreliable support, the BTCUSD may fall downwards to 50819.7 and 47491.5 respectively. In H4 chart symmetrical triangle breakout created prospects of a bullish trend. Three inside up pattern constructs a bullish outlook for the pair in the upcoming week.

Preference
Buy: 61609.7 target at 68162.3 and stop loss at 56160.6

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 56160.6 target at 47492.5 and stop loss at 61609.7

XAU/USD Weekly Forecast (18th October 2021 – 22nd October 2021)

Fundamental view:

Gold initially gained against the US dollar but fell at the end of the week. The data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) had stayed unchanged on a yearly basis at 4% in September and the reading provided a boost to risk sentiment. Moreover, upbeat third-quarter earnings from big US financial institutions made it difficult for the safe-haven greenback to find demand, this helped the yellow metal.

The data from the US showed on Thursday that the annual Producer Price Index (PPI) rose to 8.6% in September from 8.3% in August. Further, the US Department of Labor made an announcement that there were 293,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US during the week ending October 9. The key U.S. data point Friday is the monthly retail sales report for September, which came in at up 0.7% versus the consensus forecast of down 0.2% from August. The August report was also revised up, to a 0.9% gain from the original figure of up 0.7%. This benefited the US dollar and trouble the XAU/USD.              

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Oct 18, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 20, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 21 and Markit Manufacturing PMI at Oct 22 for US.

XAU/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.07% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1800.5 and low at 1749.8 showed a movement of 507 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect XAU/USD to show a bullish trend.  The Instrument is trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1795.2 may open a way towards 1823.2 and then lead a way to 1845.9. Should 1744.5 prove to be unreliable support, the XAUUSD may sink downwards to 1721.8 and 1693.8 respectively. In H4 chart ascending scallop pattern frames prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted hammer formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy: 1772.9 target at 1822.2 and stop loss at 1739.5

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 1739.5 target at 1694.8 and stop loss at 1772.9

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (18th October 2021 – 22nd October 2021)

Fundamental view:

American dollar advanced again the US dollar during the trading course of the week. The Australian dollar rallied despite tepid local data. The minutes of the FOMC monetary policy meeting held on September 21-22 revealed that the US central bank is remaining on track to begin tapering its bond purchases in 2021. Moreover, a growing number of policymakers were worried about the continuous rise in inflationary pressure which is forcing investors to bring forward the likely timing of a potential rate hike.

US PPI monthly report on 14th Oct and US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations on 15th Oct created bullish trend whereas Australia NAB Business Conditions on 12th Oct and Australia Employment Change on 14th Oct created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Oct 18, RBA Meeting Minutes at Oct 19, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 20, RBA Governor Lowe Speech, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 21 and Markit Manufacturing PMI at Oct 22.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 1.37% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7439 and low at 0.7291 showed a movement of 148 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bullish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 0.7472 may open a path towards 0.7530 and may take a way up to 0.7620. Should 0.7324 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may fall downwards to 0.7234 and 0.7176 respectively. In H4 chart inverse head and shoulders pattern formation favors prospects of a bullish trend. Also to be noted Bullish harami formation exerts the expectation of uptrend for the pair.

Preference
Buy: 0.7414 target at 0.7548 and stop loss at 0.7319

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 0.7319 target at 0.7177 and stop loss at 0.7414

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (18th October 2021 – 22nd October 2021)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar has skyrocketed against the Japanese yen during the trading course of the week. The widening spread between US and Japanese sovereign yields over the past three weeks has kept the USD/JPY moving sharply higher despite the weaker view on the dollar. The yen was hampered by the prospect of another huge stimulus package from Tokyo when the national elections on October 31 are completed. Inflation in Japan and the United States continued to dominate economic news. Markets are now waiting for an announcement from the Federal Reserve on the start date and amount of its bond purchase program reduction at its November 3 meeting.

US JOLTS Job Openings on 12th Oct and US Michigan Current Conditions on 15th Oct created bearish trend whereas US CB Employment Trends Index on 11th Oct and US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change on 14th Oct created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Fed Industrial Production yearly report at Oct 18, , Japan Trade Balance at Oct 19, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 20, Japan CPI yearly report, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims at Oct 21 and Markit Manufacturing PMI at Oct 22.

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 2.00% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 114.46 and low at 112.17 showed a movement of 229 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 115.08 may open a clean path towards 115.91 and may take a way up to 117.37. Should 112.79 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 111.33 and 110.50 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of ascending scallop pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bullish engulfing formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 114.24 target at 116.32 and stop loss at 112.74

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 112.74 target at 110.51 and stop loss at 114.24