AUD/USD Weekly Forecast (11th October 2021 – 15th October 2021)

Fundamental view:

Aussie managed to gain against the greenback during this week. Initially in the week, sentiment led the way for the greenback changing course on relief-related news. The week started with the traders worried about supply chain issues which weighed on growth and it pushed inflation up, a situation that continues as it comes to an end. The US dollar got under more pressure on Friday, following the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed that the country added only 194K new jobs in September. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said that it would take one good employment report to convince him about tapering. On the other hand, The Reserve Bank of Australia had a monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, and as widely anticipated, the central bank left its cash rate at a record low of 0.1%. Amidst all these, AUD showed a uptrend.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on 5th Oct and US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change on 7th Oct created bullish trend whereas Australia ANZ Job Advertisements monthly report on 5th Oct and US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change on 6th Oct created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Australia NAB Business Confidence US JOLTS Job Openings at Oct 12, FOMC Minutes at Oct 13, Australia Employment Change, US Initial Jobless Claims, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 14 and US Retail Sales monthly report at Oct 15.

AUD/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.37% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 0.7337 and low at 0.7225 showed a movement of 112 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect AUD/USD to show a bearish trend.  The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A firm breakout below 0.7242 may fall at 0.7177 and may take a way down to 0.7130. Should 0.7354 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD may raise upwards at 0.7401 and 0.7466 respectively. In H4 chart rising wedge pattern breakout favors prospects of a bearish trend. Also to be noted bearish harami formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 0.7304 target at 0.7197 and stop loss at 0.7359

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 0.7359 target at 0.7465 and stop loss at 0.7304

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast (11th October 2021 – 15th October 2021)

Fundamental view:

The US dollar showed a bullish trend against the yen during the trading course of the week. The pair seemed to react to the bond taper despite of the huge miss in the US September Nonfarm Payrolls. The US economy has made a gain of just 194,000 jobs in September which is far worse than expectation of 500K. The August result was revised up to 366,000 from 235,000. The two month total of 429,000 is less than one-quarter of the more than two million hires in June and July. On the other hand, Treasury rates have been rising since the last Federal Reserve meeting on September 22. 

US Factory Orders monthly report on 4th Oct and US Participation Rate on 8th Oct created bearish trend whereas Japan BoJ Monetary Base yearly report on 4th Oct and US Initial Jobless Claims on 7th Oct created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index monthly report, US JOLTS Job Openings at Oct 12, FOMC Minutes at Oct 13, Japan Industrial Production monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 14, Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index monthly report and US Retail Sales monthly report at Oct 15.  

USD/JPY Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.16% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 112.25 and low at 110.82 showed a movement of 143 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect USD/JPY to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 112.71 may open a clean path towards 113.20 and may take a way up to 114.14. Should 111.28 prove to be unreliable support, the USDJPY may sink downwards 110.34 and 109.85 respectively. In H4 chart, Formation of cup and handle pattern indicates reversal of the trend creating prospects of a bullish trend Along with a bullish hammer formation braces our expectation.

Preference
Buy: 112.21 target at 113.19 and stop loss at 111.72

 

Alternate Scenario
Sell: 111.72 target at 110.89 and stop loss at 112.21

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (11th October 2021 – 15th October 2021)

Fundamental view:

Pound showed a uptrend against the US dollar in this week. The US economy has made a gain of just 194,000 jobs in September which is far worse than expectation of 500K. Despite, upward revisions and soft gains in leisure and hospitality – related to the spread of the Delta covid variant made the data look better. Soon the dollar fell but it can be short-lived as the Fed has taper plan at its hand. Covid – 19 cases remain elevated in Britain in comparison to its peers. Amidst all the tensions, The US dollar fell and made the cable to climb despite of various British issues.

US EIA Gasoline Production Change on 6th Oct and US Private Nonfarm Payrolls on 8th Oct created bearish trend whereas US Factory Orders monthly report on 4th Oct and Britain Markit/CIPS Services PMI on 5th Oct created bullish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are UK Claimant Count Change, US JOLTS Job Openings at Oct 12, UK Manufacturing Production monthly report, UK GDP monthly report, FOMC Minutes at Oct 13, US Initial Jobless Claims, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 14 and US Retail Sales monthly report at Oct 15.

GBP/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.52% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.3657 and low at 1.3532 showed a movement of 125 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect GBP/USD to show a downtrend.  The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average but the MACD trades to the upside. A firm breakout below 1.3544 may fall to 1.3475 and may take a way down to  1.3419. Should 1.3669 prove to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD may raise upwards to 1.3725 and 1.3794 respectively. In H4 chart, if breakout of the Symmetrical triangle is to the downside then bearish expectation is favored. And it has to be noted that shooting star formation exerts the expectation of downtrend for the pair.

Preference
Sell: 1.3599 target at 1.3476 and stop loss at 1.3674

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.3674 target at 1.3793 and stop loss at 1.3599

EUR/USD Weekly Forecast (11th October 2021 – 15th October 2021)

Fundamental view:

The Euro has fell against greenback in this week reaching to a fresh low of 1.1528 as the world struggles to overcome the pandemic. Resuming of the economic activity has faced hurdles and supply chain disruptions since the recovery is very uneven across the globe. The soon to come tapering has benefited the US dollar. Talking on the Fed, The US Federal Reserve has long anticipated reducing its pandemic-related facilities programs, while the European Central Bank seems quite comfortable maintaining financial support. But at the end of the week, It was a great disappointment since the US has just added 194K new jobs in September which is much worse than the 500K expectation. The Unemployment Rate has contracted to 4.8%, although it was because the participation rate shrank to 61.6%.  This pressured the greenback but Euro could not take the advantage of that.

Europe Unemployment Change on 4th Oct and Europe Industrial Production monthly report on 5th Oct created bullish trend whereas US Factory Orders excl. Transportation monthly report on 4th Oct and US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change on 6th Oct created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are Euro ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator, US JOLTS Job Openings at Oct 12, Europe Industrial Production monthly report, FOMC Minutes at Oct 13, US Initial Jobless Claims, US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at Oct 14 and US Retail Sales monthly report at Oct 15.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.73% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1640 and low at 1.1529 showed a movement of 111 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to showcase a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the downside. A firm breakout below 1.1521 may fall to 1.1469 and may take a way down to 1.1410. Should 1.1632 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards to 1.1691 and 1.1743 respectively. Chart formation of an inverted cup and handle pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Shooting star formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.

Preference
Sell: 1.1575 target at 1.1471 and stop loss at 1.1637

 

Alternate Scenario
Buy: 1.1637 target at 1.1743 and stop loss at 1.1575