Fundamental view:

The EUR/USD pair has fallen during the week but finished it above the 1.2100 range. The greenback appreciated on risk aversion generated by turmoil in equities markets. Traders looked beyond US first-tier data, instead focused on the individuals; investors craze that stole headlines these days but on the other hand, US data was mostly upbeat. 

US HPI on 26^th January and Europe Unemployment Rate on 28^Th January created bullish trend for the pair whereas Europe Ifo Business Climate on 25^th January and Europe Jobseekers on 27^th January created bearish trend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Feb 01, Europe GDP quarterly report at Feb 02, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Feb 03, Europe Retail Sales monthly report, US Initial Jobless Claims at Feb 04, and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Feb 05.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.05% lower than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.2183 and low at 1.2059 showed a movement of 124 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bearish trend. The currency pair is trading below the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout below 1.2067 may open a clean path towards 1.2001 and may take a way down to 1.1943. Should 1.2191 prove to be unreliable resistance, the EURUSD may raise upwards 1.2249 and 1.2315 respectively. Chart formation of an Inverted Cup and Handle pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bearish trend. Bearish harami formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bearish trend.