Fundamental view:

Euro traded high against the greenback in this week and reached July high. The US central bank left its monetary policy unchanged which was expected and the economy continued to progress but noted that “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goal of stable prices and maximum employment has not yet been achieved. “We are not there yet,” said Chairman Jerome Powell while asked him after the speech.

US Wholesale Inventories monthly report on 28th July & Europe Core CPI monthly report on 30th July created downtrend whereas Europe Ifo Business Climate on 26th July & Europe Jobseekers Total on 27th July created uptrend for the pair.

The major economic events deciding the movement of the pair in the next week are US ISM Manufacturing PMI at Aug 02, Europe Retail Sales monthly report, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at Aug 04, ECB Economic Bulletin, US Initial Jobless Claims at Aug 05 and US Nonfarm Payrolls at Aug 06.

EUR/USD Weekly outlook:

Technical View:

Last week’s high was 0.66% higher than the previous week. Maintaining high at 1.1908 and low at 1.1763 showed a movement of 145 pips.

In the upcoming week we expect EUR/USD to show a bullish trend. The currency pair is trading above the 200 Simple Moving Average and the MACD trades to the upside. A solid breakout above 1.1932 may open a clean path towards 1.1992 and may take a way up to 1.2077. Should 1.1787 prove to be unreliable support, the EURUSD may sink downwards 1.1702 and 1.1642 respectively. Chart formation of a Semi – W pattern in H4 chart sets prospects for a bullish trend. Engulfing formation in H4 chart escalates the expectation for a bullish trend.